Following a brief visit where he met Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba in Tokyo, Lee has arrived in Washington ahead of a high-level White House meeting with Trump.
This will mark the inaugural face-to-face encounter between the two leaders.
The summit comes on the heels of a July trade agreement where Washington committed to reducing tariffs on South Korea from the initially suggested 25 percent to 15 percent.
The meeting is pivotal for South Korea, whose relationship with the Trump administration has faced turbulence due to internal political upheaval, including a brief declaration of martial law by the country’s impeached former president, Yoon Suk-yeol, in December.
Key discussions will focus on finalizing details of the trade deal from July, wherein South Korea agreed to purchase $100 billion in U.S. energy and make a $350 billion investment in the U.S. economy.
Additionally, there will be conversations regarding substantial direct investments in the U.S. from South Korean companies, with forecasts indicating that Samsung Electronics, SK Group, Hyundai Motor, and LG Group together contribute approximately 126 trillion won ($91.2 billion) to the U.S. through direct investments.
Choi Yoon-jung, a researcher at the Sejong Institute in Seoul, advised Lee to approach the talks directly, emphasizing that “South Korea is currently in a difficult position regarding trade with the U.S. compared to the past.”
“It is crucial for President Lee to explain how these investments will serve U.S. national interests and remind Trump that these two nations are close trading partners who endured significant challenges over two decades to achieve their Free Trade Agreement,” Choi stated.
Mason Richey, a professor of international politics at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies (HUFS), indicated that the investment talks are likely to be unpredictable.
“It is highly probable that the U.S. will retain the current 15 percent tariffs and the investment aspect of the deal may remain uncertain, subject to adjustments by the White House,” Richey commented.
As part of the trade agreement, shipbuilding is highlighted as an area where Trump seeks a partnership with South Korea to bolster the U.S. shipbuilding industry. South Korea has agreed to a partnership valued at around $150 billion to assist the U.S. in this sector.
Lee is also set to visit the Philly Shipyard, purchased by South Korean company Hanwha Group last year, following his White House meeting. This move underscores the collaboration potential in battery production and semiconductor sectors where Trump aims to enhance U.S. capabilities.
Discussions will also cover the defense posture against North Korea’s growing threats and efforts to adapt the strategic alliance between the countries to address evolving security and economic environments.
Jenny Town, the director of the research program 38 North, said the role of U.S. forces in Korea has been an evolving topic, culminating in increased great power competition from China.
“The Trump administration is dedicated to optimizing resources for U.S. interests and priorities. Hence, some changes are anticipated during his tenure,” Town observed.
A U.S. Senate defense bill includes provisions against reducing the number of U.S. Forces Korea (USFK) troops, suggesting that immediate troop deployment changes are unlikely.
“A significant point of contention may be extending U.S. troop job assignments to align with U.S. interests. Trump may urge South Korea to take on a more substantial role in regional security, which could involve participation in conflicts concerning Taiwan,” Richey speculated.
Financial discussions between Trump and Lee may also broach security matters, as Trump has consistently called for South Korea to bear a greater share of the costs for U.S. troops stationed on its soil.
South Korea currently commits over $1 billion to USFK and built Camp Humphreys, the largest U.S. base abroad, at its expense. Trump wants defense spending by U.S. allies to approach 5 percent of GDP; presently, South Korea dedicates 3.5 percent.
Discussion on the transfer of wartime operational control – shifting control during wartime from the U.S. to South Korea – is also on the agenda, with Seoul aiming for the transition by 2030.
Kim Yo Jong, North Korea’s leader Kim Jong Un’s sister, recently dismissed the prospect of diplomatic ties with the U.S. and South Korea. Despite this, there could be potential U.S. interest in establishing different, non-denuclearization-based relations with North Korea, according to Town.
A significant risk, however, is Trump potentially bypassing South Korea in any diplomacy with North Korea, which could impact South Korea’s influence and security in the future.
Additionally, the meeting coincides with annual large-scale joint military exercises between South Korea and the U.S., which North Korea has vocally opposed as rehearsals for invasion.
Lastly, the potential role of Russia in the future of the U.S.-North Korea relationship may also be a topic of discussion, given the recent military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang, which presents another layer of complexity to the strategic dynamics involved.
In conclusion, Choi is optimistic regarding continued U.S. involvement in global negotiations and conflicts, despite Trump’s isolationist rhetoric.
