Byelections usually serve as a gauge of public sentiment towards the government. The recent Kiama byelection in New South Wales – highlighted by the disappointing performance of the state’s Liberal party – has exacerbated internal tensions within the opposition regarding Mark Speakman’s leadership.
In the Kiama contest, Labor not only maintained but increased its primary vote, an uncommon occurrence in a byelection. The party’s candidate, Katelin McInerney, is projected to secure approximately a 60% to 40% victory in a two-party preferred vote against Liberal candidate Serena Copley.
Speakman defended the Liberal party’s decision to participate in the byelection, stating that despite being underdogs, they aimed to offer Kiama voters a choice. He also pointed out the unique circumstances of the byelection, which was triggered by the resignation of Gareth Ward following his conviction for rape in July.
Ward, once a popular figure, had originally won his seat for the Liberals in 2011 and reclaimed it as an independent in 2023 amidst ongoing sexual assault charges.
The central question for the Liberal party as it meets in the coming days is whether anyone can offer better leadership than Speakman. As the opposition, the party has faced challenges, including a potential loss of seats if the Kiama result is indicative of a broader trend, which could impact their prospects for future power.
While Mark Speakman is regarded as a diligent and principled leader, his challenge lies in effectively communicating his message in a media landscape that often prioritizes sensational over political news. His attempts to articulate the party’s vision have frequently been overshadowed by colleagues at press events, emphasizing the difficulty in capturing and maintaining public attention.
Nevertheless, there is currently no strong call within the Liberal party for a change in leadership, with key figures indicating no immediate action. This suggests that any potential challenge to Speakman may not materialize in the near future.
As the state Liberal party grapples with its internal dynamics, it faces the broader issue of aligning itself with the evolving expectations of its constituents, which could impact its prospects in future elections.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/14/the-question-for-the-nsw-liberals-after-the-kiama-drubbing-is-can-anyone-do-better-than-mark-speakman
