The number of heat-related deaths in Sydney could surge by almost 450% if global heating exceeds 3C, according to a pivotal report showing no Australian community would be spared by the “cascading, compounding, and concurrent” risks of a deteriorating climate.
The report also highlights the increased danger from rising sea levels on Australia’s densely populated coastal communities, including threats of flooding, erosion, and submersion.
By 2050, it is estimated that 1.5 million coastal residents will be at risk, rising to over 3 million by 2090.
The federal government has released the much-awaited national climate risk assessment, offering the most comprehensive picture yet of the severe and far-reaching social and economic impacts of the climate crisis on Australia.
Produced by the Australian Climate Service and climate change department, the initial assessment examines the impact of climate-related hazards, like heatwaves, drought, and floods, on different sectors of the community, economy, and environment under three global warming scenarios – exceeding 1.5C, 2C, and 3C.
Warming across the Australian continent has already arrived at 1.5C, as noted in the report. Among the findings, it warns that public health risks would intensify, with a “significant potential for loss of life and strain on health systems.”
Under the 3C scenario, the number of heat-related deaths in Sydney is projected to increase by 444% and by 423% in Darwin.
The assessment also evaluates the economic impact, estimating the direct cost of floods, bushfires, storms, and cyclones across the states and territories could reach $40bn a year in 2050 – even under a 1.5C scenario.
The economic damage would extend beyond the disasters themselves. For instance, property value losses could increase to $611bn by 2050, escalating to $770bn by 2090.
In another finding, the number of workdays lost due to heatwaves could total 2.7m across the workforce under the 3C scenario.
The government has also unveiled a national adaptation framework to assist in preparing communities for a changing climate.
“Australians are already facing the consequences of climate change, but it’s evident that every degree of warming we prevent will help future generations avoid the worst impacts,” said the climate change minister, Chris Bowen.
“The national
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/sep/15/millions-of-australians-at-risk-from-rising-sea-levels-and-heat-deaths-could-soar-landmark-climate-report-warns
