“I am the only logical choice. 2025 is coming,” said Conor McGregor in September 2024, appearing to announce his candidacy to be Ireland’s president.
Since then, he has made references to what he would do in power despite it being a largely ceremonial role – asserting that he “would have all the answers the people of Ireland seek from these thieves of the working man, these disrupters of the family unit, these destructors of small businesses”.
He has received endorsements from Elon Musk and Andrew Tate, and just last week US President Donald Trump said McGregor was his favourite Irish man and had “the best tattoos I’ve ever seen”.
Mr Trump even invited him to the White House on St. Patrick’s Day where the 36-year-old complained about Ireland’s “illegal immigration racket” – prompting pushback from the country’s prime minister Micheal Martin that McGregor does not “reflect the views of the people of Ireland”.
Despite the US support for McGregor running in the Irish presidential election, just what are his chances of even being nominated?
“Close to zero,” says Gail McElroy, a professor of political science at Trinity College Dublin.
“There’s two hurdles. First, you have to get nominated and then you have to win a majority of the vote.
“Both of those hurdles are almost insurmountable [for McGregor],” she says.
Candidates – no matter if they are an independent or affiliated with a party – must be nominated in one of two ways.
The first is to get the support of 20 members of the Oireachtas – representatives in Ireland’s lower and upper houses of parliament.
The second way is to be nominated by four of Ireland’s 31 local authorities, ie county or city councils.
“There’s a lot of [Oireachtas members] – 60 senators and 174 TDs [Irish MPs], but most of those are party affiliated and they won’t nominate [McGregor].”
Professor McElroy says it’s “not uncommon” for presidential candidates to be nominated via local authorities – but councils don’t typically support candidates like McGregor.
“You’re talking about different types of characters, you know Mary Davis, who ran the Special Olympics [who ran for president in 2011]. It’s likeable candidates who county councils feel should have the option to run.
“Conor McGregor is toxic in Ireland. I think it’s almost inconceivable that four county councils would endorse him.”
McGregor’s far right and populist policies may on the surface appeal to disenchanted voters – his social media posts were linked to the 2023 anti-immigration Dublin riots – but a December 2023 poll in the Irish Independent found that just 8% of respondents would vote for McGregor, with 89% saying they would not cast a ballot for him.
While there is part of the electorate that would support Trump-like candidates, Ireland has “nothing in comparison to the proportion of Americans who share those views”.
“There are people with right-wing views or populist views or anti-immigrant views but not enough to affect McGregor.
“It would be a small minority vote. He’s so far out. There are many, many candidates ahead of him.
A date for the Irish presidential election has not yet been set but it must be held by October 2025. Only Irish residents are eligible to vote.
Michael D Higgins, 83, was first elected in 2011 and has served the maximum of two seven-year terms. Former Irish prime minister Bertie Ahern, ex-European Commissioner Mairead McGuinness and other senior political figures have been floated as potential candidates.
