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Does a widely shared earthquake forecast provide a sense of security or mislead the public?

Ana FaguyBBC News, Washington DC

Christal HayesBBC News, Los Angeles

Max Matza

BBC News, Seattle

Aerial view of San Francisco's Outdoor Public Warning System. In the background is a waterway with a large red bridge standing in the waterGetty Images

The human need to make a pattern in the face of danger is extremely strong, it is a normal human response to being afraid.
It is the movement of plates in relation to each other – whether above, below or alongside – that causes stress to build up. When the stress is released, an earthquake can occur.
Scientists know why an earthquake occurs – sudden movements along fault lines – but predicting such an event is something that cannot be done and something “we do not expect to know how any time in the foreseeable future”.

A highway has been turned into rubble after an earthquake, with an overpass split in half and two cars abandoned in the rubbleGetty Images

While the guess was correct, Ms Jones told the BBC that it’s unlikely any earthquake – including the largest, society-destroying types – will ever be able to be forecasted with any accuracy.
The agency notes it can calculate earthquake probability in a particular region within a certain number of years – but that’s as close as they can come.
Experts have said over the years, including people in the 1990s who would send faxes to her office in hopes of alerting her. Such a scenario appears to have happened with Mr Dmitruk, who has no science background.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c247jq391npo

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