Conflict

• A large-scale assault by Russian drones inflicted “extensive damage” in the central Ukrainian city of Kryvyi Rih, according to Oleksandr Vilkul, the city’s military administrator, early on Wednesday. Vilkul reported at least 15 explosions in Kryvyi Rih, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s hometown, which is a frequent target of Russian strikes. No immediate reports of casualties were documented.
• A Ukrainian drone strike in Russia’s Belgorod region left one civilian injured and damaged an apartment building, the region’s governor stated.
• A Russian court in Rostov-on-Don is poised to soon issue a ruling on the trial of Ukrainian military members, most from the former Azov regiment, who defended Mariupol during intense combat with Russian forces in February and April 2022. The 24 Ukrainian soldiers, including nine women, face charges of terrorist activity and participation in a terrorist organization, with potential sentences of up to 20 years.

Ceasefire

• The United States has reached separate agreements with Ukraine and Russia to ensure safe navigation in the Black Sea and to implement a ban on strikes against energy facilities in the involved countries. Washington also committed to efforts for lifting some sanctions on Russia as initial steps towards a broader ceasefire. “Our discussions with Russia and Ukraine are progressing smoothly,” US President Donald Trump announced to reporters.
• Russia and Ukraine have agreed to temporarily halt strikes on critical infrastructure, including oil refineries, pipelines, nuclear power stations, and more. A statement from the Kremlin, mirrored on its Telegram channel, outlined the agreement encompassing fuel storage, pumping stations, electricity generation and transmission infrastructure, effective from March 18 for 30 days, with potential for extension by mutual consent.
• White House officials mirrored this, stating that Russia and Ukraine have consented to ensure safe navigation and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military activities in the Black Sea. The US seeks to enforce restrictions on energy infrastructure strikes.

• The Kremlin emphasized that implementation of the Black Sea agreement is contingent upon lifting sanctions against Russian banks and financial organizations involved in food and fertilizer trade, along with ensuring their access to the SWIFT international banking payment system. The deal’s validity is also conditional on lifting restrictions on Russian food and fertilizer exports and removing constraints on agricultural equipment exports to Russia.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy welcomed the US-brokered agreements but critiqued Washington for considering the relaxation of sanctions on Russia, arguing it “weakens our position”. Zelenskyy affirmed there is no requirement for sanctions relief for the agreements with Russia and Ukraine to take effect, accusing Moscow of manipulating the agreement.

• Russia’s foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, argued the Black Sea deal aims to reintegrate Moscow into predictable grain and fertilizer markets to ensure profit and global food security.
• The UK government expressed hope regarding the Black Sea announcement but has not confirmed whether it will follow US efforts to ease some sanctions on Russia as part of this agreement.
• The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs asserted the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, seized by Russian forces, is now a Russian facility and its control cannot be transferred back to Ukraine or any other entity.

Regional Security

• The US intelligence community’s Annual Threat Assessment report identified Russia, alongside Iran, North Korea, and China, as seeking to challenge the US via dedicated campaigns to gain strategic advantages, with Beijing specifically aiming to surpass the US in artificial intelligence by 2030.
• NATO command revealed they are leveraging lessons from the Ukraine conflict for Europe’s largest air defense exercise, concluding in the Netherlands on Wednesday.
• International bodies including the International Telecommunication Union, International Civil Aviation Organization, and International Maritime Organization, expressed deep concern over the growing disruptions to Global Navigation Satellite Systems, noting a significant increase in efforts to disrupt critical satellite navigation systems used in aviation and maritime safety since Russia’s war began and amid Middle East conflicts.
• The European Union is advocating for all households within its 27-member states to be equipped with a three-day survival kit in response to any crisis or disasters, aligning with a previous report on reinforcing Europe’s civilian and military preparedness.

Politics and Diplomacy

• Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania’s foreign ministers convened in Washington, D.C., with the US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, expressing concerns over the new US pursuit of a ceasefire in Ukraine’s conflict with Russia.
• Ahead of the meeting, Tsahkna raised concerns over the duration of the peace talks, questioning how long the US will give Russia to “play games” with the negotiations.
• Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko was inaugurated for a seventh term, dismissing critics who label him as “Europe’s last dictator”. Lukashenko, speaking at his inauguration at the Independence Palace in Minsk, highlighted thirty years of his rule while his political adversaries denounced Belarus’ elections as a sham.