Good morning. You may not be terribly excited about today’s local elections in England, but let me tell you: a significant cadre of political dorks are swivel-eyed with anticipation.
In play today are more than 1,600 council seats in 37 councils, six mayoralties, and a byelection in Runcorn for good measure. Those choices will give us the first real-world measure of how the public’s view of the parties has shifted since the general election – and for Labour and the Conservatives, it’s likely to be a very stern test indeed.
For Nigel Farage and Reform UK, meanwhile, it’s an opportunity to consolidate their reputation as a growing political threat – and actually run something for the first time. Whether that’s ultimately good news for a party built on protest more than power is a knottier question.
Today’s newsletter explains what the dorks are so animated about, and what to look out for as the results come in. Here are the headlines.
US news | The US’s economy has shrunk in the first three months of Donald Trump’s second term, triggering fears of an American recession and a global economic slowdown. Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year,
Climate crisis | Tony Blair has faced a storm of criticism over his claims that the political case for phasing out fossil fuels is “doomed to fail”. As Downing Street officials accused Blair of undermining Keir Starmer on a key issue, his thinktank issued a statement saying that the government’s net zero policy was “the right one”.
Ukraine | The US and Kyiv have signed an agreement to share revenues from the future sale of Ukrainian minerals and rare earths, sealing a deal that Donald Trump has said will provide an economic incentive for the US to continue to invest in Ukraine’s defence and its reconstruction after he brokers a peace deal with Russia.
Health | Scientists have used living human brain tissue to mimic the early stages of Alzheimer’s disease, the most common form of dementia, in a breakthrough that will accelerate the hunt for a cure.
UK news | Video footage of what prosecutors say is the moment the Sycamore Gap tree was felled has been shown to the jury in the trial of the two men accused of illegally cutting down the famous tree on Hadrian’s Wall, which stood in a gap in the wall for over a century.
In depth: How far will the political landscape shift?
As the political scientist Paula Surridge explains in this excellent psephological guide, the raw numbers that come out after the votes are counted won’t tell you that much about who’s had a good night. More useful is to compare the results with what happened last time the same contests took place.
In most of today’s elections, that was in 2021, and so the Conservatives have a lot to lose: they were extremely popular under Boris Johnson in that bygone age, partly because of the recent rollout of the coronavirus vaccine. Labour were in the doldrums. And Reform, running across England today, barely had any candidates at all. (UK In A Changing Europe has a good crib sheet on the baseline to measure the results against.)
Here’s what else to keep in mind when the votes are counted.
Labour | Will tough results prompt a lurch to the right?
Best case scenario: Cling on to Runcorn and keep Nigel Farage at bay.
Worst case scenario: The opposite, with Doncaster council also falling to Reform.
Most likely scenario: At least some retreat against Reform, and a debate over whether the party needs to tack right to head off the problem.
Conservatives | How bad does it have to be to count as a crisis?
Best case scenario: A Labour bye-election defeat distracts from their travails.
Worst case scenario: A fourth-place finish in vote share and the loss of councils in Tory strongholds – with the Lib Dems and Reform hurting them in different parts of the country.
Most likely scenario: Ugly numbers, and Tories giving interviews where they play down the damage.
Liberal Democrats | Can they capitalise on the Reform-Tory fight?
Best case scenario: Take Tory councils in the “blue wall”.
Worst case scenario: No councils gained and tactical voting works against them.
Most likely scenario: Modest gains that don’t get much attention.
Greens | Would a mayoral success grab some attention?
Best case scenario: Gain some council seats with a big increase in vote share, and win the West of England mayoral race.
Worst case scenario: Stasis.
Most likely scenario: Some success, but more evidence that Farage is the one with the megaphone.
Reform | Might they be victims of their own success?
Best case scenario: Win Runcorn, several mayoralties, and wrest control of councils from both Labour and the Tories – with more votes than anyone else across England.
Worst case scenario: Tactical voting on the left limits their success.
Most likely scenario: A lot of momentum – but also the risks that come with power.
Five big stories
US economy | The US’s economy has shrunk in the first three months of Donald Trump’s second term, triggering fears of an American recession and a global economic slowdown. Gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of the year.
Climate danger | As the world teeters on the brink of environmental catastrophe, climate scientists warn that we have just a decade to act before the damage is irreparable.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/may/01/thursday-briefing-whats-at-stake-for-every-party-in-englands-local-elections
