Trump Disregards Advice from US Experts on Iran and Middle East in US Foreign Policy Decisions

When Donald Trump ordered the US military to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities over the weekend, a debate among intelligence officials, outside experts, and policymakers over the status of Tehran’s nuclear program had been ongoing for nearly two decades. The US intelligence community has consistently concluded that while Iran has a uranium enrichment program, it has never actually built any atomic bombs. However, Israel and neoconservative Iran hawks have repeatedly insisted that Iran could build a bomb relatively quickly. The difference in Trump’s approach compared to his predecessors is that he is more willing to listen to Israel and is deeply skeptical of the Central Intelligence Agency. As a result, the arguments over Iran’s nuclear program have descended into theological disputes over the significance of each change in the program. Despite pressure from Israel and hawks, the US intelligence community and successive presidents have maintained their stance on Iran’s nuclear program. The ongoing debate over Iran’s enrichment program versus “weaponization” or bomb-building has had clear parallels with Saddam Hussein’s handling of his supposed weapons of mass destruction program. In 2007, the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran’s nuclear program found that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003 and had never built a bomb. Moreover, the NIE determined that Iran’s commercial nuclear fuel cycle – its enrichment program – was not part of an ongoing nuclear weapons program. In 2011, another NIE slightly altered the intelligence community’s assessment and found that Iran’s uranium enrichment program was probably being upgraded and could eventually be used to create weapons-grade uranium. However, the NIE also found that Iran had not tried to build a bomb and was not planning to restart its nuclear weaponization program. Today, the US intelligence community still maintains that Iran has an enrichment program but has not built a bomb. Critics argue that there is no evidence to suggest Iran has been “weaponizing” and argue that the debate over the program has been relegated to a series of theological disputes.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/jun/23/trump-israel-iran-nuclear-facilities-cia