The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director, Rafael Grossi, warns that Iran is capable of resuming enrichment of uranium – potentially for a bomb purposes – within a few months. The recent US strike on three Iranian sites had severe but not total damage, contrary to Donald Trump’s claim of total destruction.
“Honestly speaking, one cannot assert that everything has vanished and nothing remains,” Grossi stated on Saturday.
Israeli attacks on nuclear and military sites in Iran on 13 June had suggested that Iran was nearing the construction of a nuclear weapon. The US subsequently joined in the attacks, targeting Iran’s three nuclear facilities: Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan.
Uncertainty persists regarding the extent of the damage inflicted by these strikes.
Grossi informed CBS News that Iran could potentially “in a matter of months… have a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium”.
He further stated that Iran still maintains the “industrial and technological capacities… to restart enrichment if they choose to do so”.
The IAEA is not the first organization to suggest that Iran’s nuclear capabilities could still persist, as a Pentagon intelligence assessment earlier this week indicated that the strikes only delayed the program by months.
Trump vehemently responded by stating that Iran’s nuclear sites were “completely destroyed” and accused the media of attempting to discredit what he deemed as one of the most successful military strikes in history”.
Currently, Iran and Israel have agreed to a ceasefire.
However, Trump stated that he would “absolutely” consider bombing Iran again if intelligence pointed to Iran’s uranium enrichment reaching levels of concern.
Iran has sent mixed messages regarding the extent of the damage caused by the strikes.
In a speech on Thursday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the strikes had no significant impact. However, its foreign minister Abbas Araghchi stated that “excessive and serious” damage was incurred.
Iran’s already-contentious relationship with the IAEA worsened recently when Iran’s parliament voted to suspend cooperation with the UN watchdog, accusing the IAEA of favoring Israel and the US.
Following the IAEA’s discovery last month that Tehran had breached its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in 20 years, both countries launched attacks against Iran.
Iran insists that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes and civilian use only.
Despite Iran’s reluctance to collaborate with his organization, Grossi expressed hope that he could still negotiate with Tehran.
“I must sit down with Iran and examine this situation, as a long-term solution must be diplomatic,” he said.
According to the 2015 nuclear deal with global powers, Iran was not allowed to enrich uranium beyond 3.67% purity – the level required for fuel in commercial nuclear power plants – and prohibited from undertaking any enrichment at its Fordo plant for 15 years.
However, Trump withdrew from the agreement in 2018 claiming that it failed to prevent Iran from developing a bomb, and reinstated US sanctions.
In retaliation, Iran started to increasingly breach restrictions, particularly those related to enrichment. Iran resumed enrichment at Fordo in 2021 and has reportedly stockpiled enough 60%-enriched uranium to possibly create nine nuclear bombs, according to the IAEA.
