This will mark Netanyahu’s third meeting with US President Donald Trump this year, with Trump asserting that the US and Israel have “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear programme during a 12-day war and threatening further military action if Iran resumes nuclear activities.
Trump recently announced that Israel has agreed to a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza, which would provide an opportunity for all parties to work towards ending the 21-month-long conflict.
Hamas has given a “positive” response to Qatari and Egyptian mediators regarding the latest ceasefire proposal, indicating a potential willingness to engage in negotiations.
Ceasefire Possibility
In the wake of Hamas’s response, Trump has hinted at the possibility of a “deal next week” and expressed a commitment to pressure Netanyahu for a ceasefire.
Netanyahu has acknowledged Hamas’s proposed changes to the ceasefire proposal, which Israel has deemed “unacceptable” but is open to negotiations in Qatar this weekend.
A leaked version of the proposed deal indicates a 60-day pause in hostilities and the phased release of Israeli captives held in Gaza since a Hamas-led assault on October 7, 2023.
Given the extensive casualties in Israel’s war on Gaza, many experts express skepticism that a temporary ceasefire will lead to a permanent end to the conflict.
Experts argue that while Trump’s pressure might secure the release of the captives, the war and the suffering in Gaza are likely to continue.
There is concern that the ceasefire efforts may not lead to a lasting peace agreement but instead serve as a temporary measure akin to previous ceasefires.
Political Considerations
Analysts believe that Trump is motivated by a desire to secure significant diplomatic victories to tout his achievements in foreign policy.
Trump aims to secure the release of remaining Israeli captives and address the Gaza issue to further normalize relations between Israel and Arab states.
Netanyahu may also leverage the negotiations as a platform to bolster his political standing, especially with Israel’s upcoming parliamentary elections.
Some analysts suggest that a permanent ceasefire could destabilize Netanyahu’s current far-right coalition, hinting at political implications beyond just the conflict resolution.
A Unique Turn of Events
Discussions during Netanyahu’s visit to the US may also include Netanyahu’s legal trial on corruption and bribery charges, an element that could influence his political decisions.
Trump has expressed support for Netanyahu and suggested the possibility of suspending military aid to Israel unless charges against Netanyahu are dropped.
Such a move would be extraordinary and reflects the complexity of the relationship between the two leaders and the broader geopolitical interests at play.
The decision to pardon Netanyahu remains with Israel’s President Isaac Herzog, though such an action would be unprecedented without clear public justification.
Legal experts suggest that Netanyahu would have to agree to retire from politics in exchange for a plea bargain, which remains uncertain.
