New alliances in Sudan’s civil war are at risk of igniting a regional conflict by drawing in neighboring South Sudan, according to analysts speaking to Al Jazeera.

The most significant development was an alliance in February between the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), who established a government to rival Sudan’s current de facto leadership.

Since April 2023, the RSF has been at war with Sudan’s army and is seeking to expand its control and influence in central and eastern Sudan.

The SPLM-N is an armed movement led by Abdel Aziz al-Hilu, which has been fighting Sudan’s army for decades and controls parts of the states of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, bordering South Sudan.

Analysts say that Sudan’s army is responding by backing South Sudanese militias to combat the SPLM-N and the RSF along their shared border.

South Sudan has its own political crisis at the moment, which could escalate into an all-out civil war.

If the situation in South Sudan deteriorates, it would make it difficult to separate the conflict in Sudan from the conflict in South Sudan, according to Alan Boswell, an expert on South Sudan and Sudan for the International Crisis Group.

Analysts criticize SPLM-N for aligning itself with the RSF, which is accused of committing atrocities by the United Nations and other observers.

Abdel Aziz al-Hilu likely chose the alliance because he could no longer afford to stay neutral, said Kholood Khair, an expert on Sudan and the founding director of the Confluence Advisory think tank.

Sudan’s army general, Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, believes that South Sudan’s president, Salva Kiir, is quietly backing the alliance between the RSF and SPLM-N.

Kiir’s support for the SPLM-N dates back to the pre-independence civil war and Sudan’s army believes that Kiir is accountable for any actions by the SPLM-N.

The Division of the Nuba tribespeople in South Kordofan and Blue Nile during the civil war led to the formation of the SPLM-N and a divide-and-conquer approach by the Sudanese army, supported by “Arab” militias.

This strategy continued under Omar al-Bashir’s rule, who used the Popular Defence Forces (PDF) to combat rebellions across the country.

After South Sudan’s secession, the Nuba

Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/3/29/sudans-war-risks-merging-with-conflict-in-south-sudan-say-analysts?traffic_source=rss