On March 27, while visiting Russia’s newest nuclear submarine, the Arkhangelsk, Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested that a temporary administration should be established in Ukraine to oversee elections.
Since negotiations commenced in February, Russian officials have been attempting to undermine Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s credibility.
For instance, the Kremlin has persistently accused Ukraine of violating ceasefires on energy infrastructure, a proposal made by Moscow on March 18 which Ukraine has not accepted.
Negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian technical teams have been unsuccessful in establishing what should be protected under the proposed ceasefire agreement.
On Tuesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov announced that he would provide his US counterpart with a list of energy facilities hit by Ukraine during the conflict, aiming to demonstrate the unreliability of Ukraine’s current leadership.
The Kremlin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, later confirmed that Ukraine had indeed not agreed to the moratorium on strikes.
Numerous other objections to the ceasefire talks have been raised by Russia.
In an interview on Tuesday, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov indicated that the US-led negotiations “leave no room for Russia’s core demand” to address “the root causes of this conflict,” as defined by officials in Moscow, which include reversing NATO’s eastward expansion and the treatment of Russian minorities in Ukraine.
Russia also opposes the presence of peacekeepers enforcing any ceasefire. Russian Ambassador-at-Large Rodion Miroshnik views any European force in Ukraine as “a blatant occupation of Ukraine by Europe.” The European Union has proposed deploying a peacekeeping force after a peace agreement is reached.
On Sunday, Trump expressed frustration with Russia’s stance, stating he might impose “25 to 50-point tariffs on all [Russian] oil” within the next month and sanction companies that purchase it. The relevance of such tariffs is unclear, as Joe Biden, Trump’s predecessor, had already banned all imports of Russian oil to the US in 2022.
Trump’s impatience with the situation arose during a golf outing with Finnish President Alexander Stubb, who advised him that a deadline was needed for a ceasefire. “April 20 would be a suitable time for a comprehensive ceasefire without any conditions,” Stubb suggested, as it is Easter and would mark Trump’s three months in office.
While Trump did not adopt Stubb’s recommendation, he acknowledged the psychological aspect of deadlines and expressed ambiguity about whether Putin was intentionally delaying talks. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) suggests that Putin is unlikely to quickly agree to a ceasefire, viewing the conflict as crucial for Russia’s strategic competition with the US and his personal legacy.
Russian Attacks Continue Unabated
Despite the ongoing negotiations, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence reported that Russia has increased its assaults along the front line. Combat clashes rose to 4,270 in March, compared to 3,274 in February. The use of glide bombs by Russia has also remained constant, with 10,577 used in the first three months of the year.
Throughout the week, Russia continued its long-range aerial attacks and launched 172 drones against Ukraine on March 29, with 94 being shot down and 69 disoriented through electronic jamming. Strikes on high-rise apartment blocks in Dnipro caused fires and casualties, highlighting Russia’s disregard for diplomacy, according to President Zelenskyy.
Ukrainian Manpower and Weapons
Ukraine has intensified recruitment and training efforts in recent months. The Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskii credits the improved training for a decrease in casualties compared to previous months. Conscription remains mandatory for Ukrainian males aged 25 and above, with a volunteer program also in place for those aged 18-24. Additionally, the country is increasingly reliant on domestically produced weapons, with 350 new designs approved this year.
Europe’s Position
Europe continues to provide substantial weapons support to Ukraine. During a visit to Kyiv on March 27, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock announced a new €3bn ($3.3bn) military aid package for Ukraine, increasing Germany’s total military assistance to €7bn ($7.7bn) this year. Other countries such as the Netherlands and Sweden have also pledged significant financial and military aid to Ukraine.
The United Kingdom and France plan to co-chair meetings of countries contributing peacekeepers and those providing military support to Ukraine, demonstrating Europe’s commitment to aiding Ukraine both diplomatically and militarily.
