Despite recent setbacks, billionaire Elon Musk claims that there is a 50 percent chance of SpaceX’s Mars spacecraft making its first uncrewed voyage to the red planet by the end of 2026.
Musk presented a detailed Starship development timeline in a video posted online by his rocket company based in the Los Angeles area on Thursday.
The South African-born billionaire and owner of SpaceX stated that the latest timeline for reaching Mars depends on the craft’s ability to complete several challenging technical feats during testing, including a post-launch refuelling maneuver in Earth’s orbit.
In a video on social media platform X, which he also owns, Musk said that Starbase, his industrial complex and rocket launch facility in Texas, is the “gateway to Mars”.
According to Musk, it is where the necessary technology will be developed to take humanity and civilization to another planet for the first time in the history of Earth.
The end of 2026 is when a slim window opens, offering the closest trip between Earth and Mars, as the planets align around the sun once every two years. This shorter distance would take seven to nine months to transit by spacecraft.
The first flight to Mars would carry a simulated crew consisting of Tesla-built humanoid Optimus robots. Human crews would then follow in the second or third landings.
Musk stated in the video that he gives SpaceX a 50-50 chance of meeting the 2026 deadline for the first mission. He added that if Starship is not ready by that time, SpaceX would wait another two years before trying again.
Musk’s announcement comes a day after he confirmed his departure from the administration of United States President Donald Trump, following a tumultuous few months during which his businesses, including SpaceX and electric car maker Tesla, have come under growing strain.
Musk’s unofficial role leading Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) has made him a target of criticism for overseeing what has been described as haphazard cuts to government programs.
Faced with declining stock prices and shareholder concern, particularly at Tesla, Musk has announced that he will scale back his government role to focus on his private ventures.
Missed deadlines
In 2016, Musk stated that he wanted to send an uncrewed SpaceX vehicle to Mars as early as 2018, with the goal of launching the first crewed mission there by 2024.
However, Musk’s ambitions for interplanetary exploration have been hindered by repeated setbacks over recent years.
On Tuesday, Musk was scheduled to deliver a live webcast from Starbase in Texas following the ninth test flight of Starship. However, the speech was canceled after Starship spun out of control and disintegrated approximately 30 minutes after launch, failing to achieve some of its crucial test objectives.
According to Reuters, the mega-rocket re-entered the Earth’s atmosphere earlier than planned, triggered by a fuel leak that caused uncontrollable spinning in space.
Following the failed flight, Musk stated on X that the test yielded a lot of valuable data to analyze and promised to accelerate the launch frequency for the next several attempts.
In January, the craft exploded moments after liftoff, causing debris to scatter over parts of the Caribbean and prompting commercial aircraft to change course. There was also a failed launch in March.
Musk claims that the initiative, funded by billions of dollars, is crucial to SpaceX’s plan of colonizing Mars.
SpaceX is also collaborating with NASA to return humans to the Moon using Starship in 2027, more than fifty years after the last astronauts walked on the lunar surface in 1972.
These efforts serve as a stepping stone for launching NASA astronauts to Mars in the 2030s.
