On Thursday, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom – three of Europe’s largest economies – initiated a 30-day process to reinstate sanctions due to what they termed “significant” breaches of the 2015 agreement aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear program.
“We’re headed towards a snapback scenario where the sanctions will come back in force, and Iran is likely to retaliate in some negative way,” stated Ryan Costello, policy director at the National Iranian American Council (NIAC).
Additionally, the tensions could escalate into renewed violence following Israeli strikes on Iran earlier this year. Israeli assault on Iran in June saw the United States bombing three nuclear facilities as part of a coordinated attack. The United States has expressed enthusiasm for the European countries’ action.
However, the US Administration, led by President Donald Trump, has kept the door open for talks with Iran. The US Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the United States is ready for direct talks with Iran to resolve the nuclear issue.
Costello emphasized that Iran was at the negotiation table before Israel launched its 12-day war. In June, a round of nuclear discussions between US and Iranian officials was postponed indefinitely following Israeli bombardment of Tehran two days before the scheduled talks.
Costello noted that the US and Europe must rebuild trust with Iran before restarting the nuclear discussions.
What is Snapback?
The current crisis can be traced back to President Trump’s decision in 2018 to withdraw the US from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal. The 2015 agreement, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), limited Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief against its economy.
To ensure quick penalization of Iran for violating the agreement, the deal included a “snapback” mechanism to reimpose a series of United Nations sanctions. The mechanism permits any signatory to the agreement to start a process to revive six UN Security Council sanctions resolutions, a move that cannot be blocked by Russia and China, allies of Iran.
What Does Europe Want?
In response, France, Germany, and the UK have set forth three conditions to delay the snapback sanctions by six months. These demands include resumption of direct talks with the US, restoration of full cooperation with the UN nuclear watchdog, and disclosure of the new location for Iran’s heavily enriched uranium.
Impact of Snapback
However, the three European powers argued that these demands are necessary as Iran’s nuclear program poses a “clear threat to international peace and security.” According to their statement, Iran’s non-compliance with the JCPOA is “clear and deliberate,” and the sites of significant proliferation concern in Iran remain outside of IAEA monitoring.
Disclosure of the uranium’s location could make it a target for further strikes by Israel or the US, making it difficult for Iran to agree. The UN sanctions, which include an arms embargo, could allow other countries to impose unilateral sanctions and further damage trust in the Iranian economy.
Europe Goes Hawkish
Since the beginning of the 21st century, European countries have generally been seen as a restraining force on Washington’s hawkish tendencies toward Iran. Despite adopting the US sanctions, European leaders opposed Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018. However, since Trump’s return to office in January, European countries seem to have taken a more aggressive stance against Iran.
In June, European powers failed to condemn Israel’s unprovoked war on Iran and even appeared to endorse it. This shift in their posture is linked to their broader relationship with the US and the fact that Iran is seen as a threat due to its alleged supply of drones to Russia for use in its war against Ukraine.
The ongoing nuclear tensions will continue unless the US demands that Iran dismantle its nuclear program, while Iran insists on continuing uranium enrichment domestically.
