Vietnam has removed its long-standing two-child policy in an effort to address the declining birth rate and alleviate the pressures of an aging population. This policy change, announced by Minister of Health Dao Hong Lan, is intended to prevent a shrinking population from impeding the country’s economic and social development, as well as its long-term national security and defense.
Between 1999 and 2022, Vietnam maintained a birth rate of about 2.1 children per woman, the threshold required to maintain a stable population. However, this rate began to decline, reaching a record low of 1.91 children per woman in 2024. This trend is not unique to Vietnam; neighboring countries such as Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Hong Kong are experiencing similar declines in birth rates, although their economies are more advanced.
The World Bank predicts that Vietnam’s working-age population will peak around 2040, and the government aims to avoid the issue of “getting old before it gets rich.” The two-child policy was introduced in 1988 to ensure adequate resources during Vietnam’s transition to a market economy and after decades of war. The policy was most strictly enforced on members of the Communist Party, with families facing potential loss of government subsidies for having a third or fourth child.
The declining birth rate is more pronounced in urban areas like Ho Chi Minh and Hanoi, where living costs are higher. There are also significant gender imbalances, with a sex ratio at birth of 111 boys for every 100 girls, varying by region. Vietnam’s government prohibits doctors from informing parents of their child’s sex to prevent sex-selective abortions, a practice that continues despite these restrictions.
To address the potential surplus of men aged 15-49, which could reach 2.5 million by 2059, the Health Ministry has proposed tripling the fine for prenatal gender selection to approximately $3,800. This move reflects the government’s commitment to reversing population trends and promoting a more balanced demographic.
Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/6/5/vietnam-scraps-two-child-policy-to-combat-falling-birthrate?traffic_source=rss
