Could India’s Decades-Long Jungle Insurgency Finally Be Approaching Its End?
Last week, in a major security operation in the central state of Chhattisgarh, India lost its most-wanted Maoist, Nambala Keshava Rao, known as Basavaraju, alongside 26 others. This event was hailed as the most decisive strike against the insurgency in three decades by India’s Home Minister Amit Shah. The death of Basavaraju signifies more than a tactical victory; it marks a breach in the Maoists’ last line of defense in Bastar, a forested region where they have maintained their fiercest stronghold since the 1980s. Known as "Naxalites" after their origin in the 1967 uprising in Naxalbari village, West Bengal, Maoists have regrouped over the years to carve out a "red corridor" across central and eastern India. The armed struggle for Communist rule has claimed nearly 12,000 lives since 2000. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government pledging to end Maoism by March 2026, does this mark the end of the revolution, or merely another pause in its bloody history?
The Broad Decline and the Stronghold Collapse
A significant decline in violent incidents and related deaths and a considerable drop in the involvement of educated youth hint at the weakening of the Maoist force. This decline is marked by strategic victories against the Maoists, including the elimination of key leaders and significant drops in their operational capabilities and support base. Despite a slight increase in security force casualties in 2023 compared to 2022, attributed to intensified operations in core Maoist areas, Chhattisgarh remains the worst-affected state, accounting for the majority of Left-Wing Extremism (LWE) incidents and related deaths. More than precise state-led strikes and central paramilitary support, growing awareness and decreased inclination to support an armed underground movement due to access to mobile phones, social media, roads, and connectivity attribute to the decline.
Critics and Symptomatic Productions
N Venugopal, a journalist and long-time observer of the movement, supports the idea of blending the underground struggle with electoral politics, suggesting that purely military strategies may no longer be effective. In contrast, Mr. Ganapathy, a senior official in India’s home ministry, believes that the time has come for dialogue rather than continued conflict. The Maoists, while enjoying pockets of support in regions rich with minerals, face an uphill battle without a strong military base and significant operational capabilities. As the central government pushes forward with plans to auction off mines in the region, will the anger and resentment fuel new movements, even if Maoism as a concept fades? The future of India’s battle against one of the world’s longest-running insurgencies remains to be seen, but it is clear that with each victory against its leaders, the Maoist movement inches closer to its end.
