As the initial stage of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza is supposed to be concluding, it has once again been called into question. Following the liberation of the last six surviving Israeli hostages in this phase, over 600 Palestinian prisoners were due to be granted freedom by Israel in exchange – the largest number to be released all at once thus far. However, this has been postponed indefinitely by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, citing Hamas’ “cynical exploitation of hostages for propaganda purposes.” Hamas, on the other hand, accuses Israel of attempting to disrupt the ceasefire accord deliberately.

This is the latest significant obstacle on the path intended to lead to a permanent halt to hostilities and the beginning of Gaza’s reconstruction. Israel initially raised concerns about the chaotic circumstances during one of the first hostage transfers, asserting that the safety of the hostages was endangered. Furthermore, they claimed that Hamas had violated the terms of the agreement by not releasing a female civilian hostage, Arbel Yehud. In response, Israel delayed the return of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians to the north of Gaza for 48 hours, a situation resolved when Arbel Yehud was set free in an unscheduled handover prior to the next exchange the following Saturday.

Hamas subsequently accused Israel of not fulfilling its commitments to allow heavy machinery, tents, and caravans into Gaza and decided against conducting the next hostage handover as scheduled. This led to threats from both Netanyahu and the US President Donald Trump of resuming all-out war in Gaza, should the hostages not be emancipated as per the agreement. Ultimately, with the deadline looming, Hamas consented to release the hostages.

Just a few days ago, it was discovered that the body given over by Hamas as Shiri Bibas’ was not hers, sparking fresh outrage and shock in Israel, where images of Shiri attempting to shield her two young children during their abduction on October 7th, 2023, are powerfully emblematic of that day’s horrors. Netanyahu denounced Hamas for what he termed as a “cruel and malevolent violation” of the agreement. The ceasefire narrowly avoided derailment as Hamas promptly supplied another body, confirming this time that it was indeed Shiri’s.

All these incidents highlight the delicate state of the ceasefire process and may also explain why talks on the second phase, expected to start earlier this month, have yet to commence, with just a week until the first phase is set to end.

Hamas has proposed releasing the remaining hostages in the second phase all at once, but only if Israel withdraws its forces from Gaza and puts an end to the war permanently. Israel, in turn, demands Hamas to be completely disarmed, a proposal Hamas has so far declined. The orchestrated hostage handover ceremonies, which Netanyahu has strongly criticized, are aimed at demonstrating that Hamas remains a force to be reckoned with in Gaza.

In Israel, voices from the right are calling for the government to resume its conflict against Hamas, while the families of the hostages, with much of Israel’s support, insist that liberating the remaining hostages is of utmost importance.

Trump’s plan for Gaza has introduced fresh uncertainty into the equation, with the third phase of the ceasefire intended to pave the way for Gaza’s reconstruction and renewal. Arab states are working swiftly to develop a concrete alternative proposal, where Palestinians would continue living in Gaza as it is rebuilt, rather than relocating them as outlined in Trump’s plan.

The future governance of Gaza remains a critical point of contention, with Israel, Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, and Arab countries each presenting seemingly contradictory propositions. Negotiations on these issues will need to be conducted amidst the persistent threat of a return to war, which some on both sides continue to endorse.

For now, mediations from Egypt, Qatar, and the US may find themselves predominantly focused on ensuring the first phase of the ceasefire makes it past the finish line.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8x4pxwne1yo