The potential Western troop deployment to Ukraine being discussed in London should be referred to as a “reassurance force” rather than a “peacekeeping force”, according to defense and diplomatic sources. The force, known as the Multinational Force Ukraine (MFU), would be sent to Ukraine to reinforce any ceasefire and boost long-term confidence in the country. The focus would be on providing Ukraine with air cover to keep its skies safe and a naval presence in the Black Sea to facilitate trade. However, the deployment of ground troops, estimated to be around 20,000, would not be large enough to enforce any peace. Instead, the troops from a “coalition of the willing” would be deployed to protect cities, ports, and major energy infrastructure. To reassure Russia that the force poses no threat, the MFU might not operate in eastern Ukraine near the frontline. Russian President Vladimir Putin has stated that Russia would not agree to any ceasefire if European and other forces were deployed to Ukraine. The sources also emphasize that any multinational operation in Ukraine would not be a “peacekeeping force” but rather a force on Ukraine’s side to help deter future Russian aggression. The force is not expected to monitor any ceasefire, as that would be handled by Ukrainian troops and Western surveillance assets. The military impact of any allied deployment of about 20,000 troops would be limited compared to the number of troops on either side of the front line, with Ukraine having almost a million military personnel and Russia’s army being even larger. The discussions on Thursday will focus on providing Ukraine with assets it lacks, particularly air capabilities. There will be deliberations on which countries can provide warplanes to keep Ukraine’s skies safe during a ceasefire and how to make the Black Sea safe for shipping. However, the key uncertainty is whether the United States would provide any air, satellite, or intelligence cover for any European force on the ground. Thus far, the US has stated that it would not be willing to provide any military “backstop”. The European strategy is to organize the best force and capability to ensure Ukraine’s security, and once the details are agreed upon, the UK, France, and others would assess whether the European offer is substantial enough for the US to reconsider its role. The fate of all the planning depends on the agreement of some kind of ceasefire in Ukraine, although there are doubts among many in Ukraine regarding Russia’s willingness to end the fighting.

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ckgz8jlxlk3o