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DW Perspective: Forecast Analysis for 2025-03-02

Germany’s Social Democrats (SPD) and the Greens are likely to continue their coalition in Hamburg following the regional election on Sunday, according to a projection by public broadcaster ARD.

The SPD’s support dropped to 33.5% from 39.2% in 2020, but they remain the largest party in Hamburg. The Christian Democrats (CDU) gained ground and are predicted to come in second with 19.5%. The Greens, who are currently in a coalition with the SPD in Hamburg, came in third place with 17.5%.

The Left Party is expected to reach double digits for the first time in Hamburg at 11.5%, while the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) significantly increased its presence with 8.5%. The attention was focused on how the outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s SPD would perform in Hamburg after the party’s poor showing in the nationwide elections last week.

The conservative bloc, consisting of the Christian Democrats and the Bavaria-only Christian Social Union (CSU), emerged as the winners in the nationwide election, with Scholz’s SPD placing third behind the far-right Alternative for Germany.

Hamburg has been governed by a center-left coalition of the SPD and the Greens for the last five years, and pre-election polling suggested that they will retain the majority. Social Democrat Mayor Peter Tschentscher expressed optimism about the party’s ability to improve its performance in Hamburg, citing the city’s long-standing support for the SPD.

At least 121 seats will be contested in the regional parliament in Hamburg, with a minimum of 5% of the vote required for parties to enter parliament. Unlike federal elections, where the voting age is 18, all citizens of Hamburg holding German citizenship are eligible to cast their ballots from the age of 16.

Source: https://www.dw.com/en/

Source: https://www.dw.com/en/social-democrats-lead-hamburg-state-election-projection/a-71796487?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf

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