Protesters in Turkey have once again moved to the streets to fight for their rights, a scenario that is not new. There have been several key moments in recent years that have surprised yet not shocked people. Law and order continue to be eroded in Turkey, leading to a common reaction of resignation among many. “It can’t get any worse than this,” they think. Then it does.
The arrest of Istanbul’s mayor, one of Europe’s largest cities, is the latest in a series of authoritarian actions. Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu had a strong chance of contending successfully against long-time rival Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the next presidential elections. Erdogan has held power for over two decades in various roles.
“What the regime is doing to Ekrem Imamoglu surpasses anything we have seen previously,” said Berk Esen, a political scientist at Sabanci University, who has studied authoritarian trends in Turkey. He noted an “unprecedented authoritarian escalation” and, while journalists and scholars have been arrested before, this current situation brings a “new dimension” to suppression.
Could Erdogan beat Imamoglu?
Many view the arrest of Imamoglu as tactical, believing Erdogan resorted to this measure because he thought he couldn’t win the next election through democratic means.
“Erdogan realized he couldn’t defeat Imamoglu,” said Esen, indicating that Erdogan “wanted to act before a conflict in the electoral campaign.”
Esen asserts Turkey is now a “hegemonic and authoritarian” regime, reminiscent of Russia or Venezuela, where systemic change seems improbable. He adds that Turkey is no longer a “competitive authoritarian” regime where the opposition could theoretically win an election.
Imamoglu has demonstrated in the past that it is possible to succeed in an election democratically in Turkey despite numerous obstacles. In 2019, he became mayor of Istanbul, defeating the candidate from Erdogan’s conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP), which had governed the city for 25 years.
Before his recent arrest, it was apparent that Imamoglu’s party, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), planned for him to stand against Erdogan in the upcoming presidential election, set for 2028.
Given the current constitution bars Erdogan from running again in 2028, many observers speculate he will have the rules amended to allow his candidacy. “He and his supporters want him to maintain power, and he is tailoring his regime to achieve that,” Esen stated, noting there are no indications the AKP is seeking a potential successor to Erdogan.
“Imamoglu represents hope”
Was it worth mobilizing millions of discontented Turks by arresting Imamoglu? Murat Koyuncu, a former advisor to Imamoglu, told DW that Erdogan is a “vindictive individual.”
The Turkish president “holds grudges against many people. If you provoke or expose him, he will retaliate sooner or later. He has already taken action against numerous individuals, and now it is Imamoglu’s turn,” Koyuncu explained.
On March 31, 2024, the social democratic CHP won local elections nationwide and became the leading force in Turkey for the first time since 1977. Many attribute the CHP’s success largely to Imamoglu. “There are countless individuals yearning for a genuine democracy,” Koyuncu said. “Imamoglu embodies their hope,” which Erdogan presumably cannot tolerate.
What next?
What lies ahead? Koyuncu remains pessimistic. “We are just at the beginning. It will deteriorate further,” he told DW. “I predict a second and third wave. Countless people will be arrested. We will witness another exodus, with even more young, educated individuals leaving the country.”
Seren Selvin Korkmaz, director of the think tank Istanbul Political Research Institute, also foresees increased repression: “Such regimes either reform themselves or intensify the pressure,” Korkmaz indicated. “Pressure will continue to mount in the near future. There will be no room for relaxation or reform.”
She highlighted that Selahattin Demirtas, a Kurdish politician and co-leader of the popular Peoples’ Democratic Party, has been imprisoned since 2016. “We are discussing a regime that bans or obstructs its bright stars. The practice of removing successful political figures is likely to continue,” Korkmaz suggested.
Despite prevailing pessimism, Esen believes there’s still potential for a turnaround. “Imamoglu has become a political symbol. Social resistance is potent because young individuals have nothing to lose. I believe Turkey will halt two steps before becoming like Russia and Venezuela. Therefore, is all this reversible? Yes, but it will be challenging,” he said.
He anticipates a rough and protracted path ahead and further degradation before improvements are seen. Until then, Esen concluded, “anything can happen. Truly, anything can happen.”
Gülsen Solaker contributed to this article, which was translated from German.
