In many places, the importance of staying cool when temperatures soar extends beyond comfort – it can significantly impact health, productivity, economies, and even our survival.

A temperature increase of just 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels could expose 2.3 billion people to severe heat waves. Scientists predict that without reducing carbon emissions, we could hit this temperature increase by the early 2030s.

Currently, hot weather is responsible for approximately 12,000 deaths per year. By 2030, the World Health Organization conservatively predicts an additional 38,000 deaths annually due to heat exposure among the elderly.

Buying an air conditioner might seem like an easy fix, but these energy-intensive appliances contribute to the problem. Air conditioners can leak damaging refrigerants that further contribute to global warming.

“We need to break this cycle,” Lily Riahi from the United Nations Environment Program told DW. “The way we cool our homes and workplaces further drives climate change.

Cooling Conundrum

By 2024, the hottest year on record, electricity demand rose to nearly double the growth rate of the last decade, according to the International Energy Agency. Renewable energy supplied the largest portion of this growth, at 38%. However, much of this electricity still comes from fossil fuels. The IEA reported that two-thirds of the world’s electricity was provided by coal in 2024, with coal power growing by nearly 1%. A major cause is air conditioning.

This finding was confirmed in an analysis of the world’s three largest power markets: India, China, and the US, by energy think tank Ember. “Extreme heat events drove air conditioner use to a record high, increasing electricity demand and putting pressure on grids,” the report revealed.

As global temperatures, populations, and incomes rise in countries like India and China, the number of AC units in operation worldwide could jump from over 2.4 billion today to 5.6 billion by 2050. The IEA also estimates that without efficiency improvements, energy demand for space cooling could triple by the middle of the century, consuming as much electricity as China and India today.

Riahi, also a global coordinator for the Cool Coalition, said this scenario will put massive pressure on electricity grids and ultimately impede efforts to meet climate targets. “By 2050, just space cooling could account for 30% to 50% of peak electricity load in many countries. The average today is 15%. So you’re going to have grid failures.”

What Can Be Done About It?

Air conditioning plays a vital role in prosperity and economic development by enabling people in hot countries to live and work in comfort. However, unless ACs become significantly more climate-friendly, the expected surge in their numbers presents a huge challenge.

Riahi highlighted a lack of awareness about cooling alternatives and financial barriers preventing the purchase of energy-efficient, low-emission ACs. “AC doesn’t have to mean the cheapest air conditioning on the market. It should be about how can we design our cities and buildings to reduce the demand for cooling in the first place and also finding ways to create incentives to bring the most efficient technologies to market.”

Surviving higher temperatures while reducing emissions will require more than improving AC efficiency. Measures such as fitting buildings with exterior shading, green roofs, or applying solar reflective paint can limit heat absorption. Expanding green spaces with water and wind corridors in cities can also help.

In India, the Mahila Housing Trust works with people in slum communities who cannot afford ACs, focusing on low-cost measures like painting heat-trapping corrugated tin roofs white, planting trees for shade, or installing roof made of compressed bamboo mats, which absorb less heat.

Trust director Bijal Brahmbhatt said coating roofs in solar reflective paint can drop indoor temperatures by up to 6 degrees Celsius. A change residents reported was almost like having AC. “The well-being level has increased quite a bit,” she said. Economic productivity also increased by 1.5 to 2 hours once the temperature dropped. People were able to slash their power bills too since they no longer had to use fans.

Lessons from the Desert

A project in the Egyptian desert, where summer temperatures can soar to almost 50 degrees Celsius, tackles heat through smart building design. Architect Sarah El-Battouty, founder of green building firm ECOnsult, managed to reduce building temperatures by around 10 degrees Celsius without mechanical solutions.

Her company has worked with the Egyptian government to upgrade 4,000 rural villages, home to about 58 million people, enabling them to cope better with extreme heat. However, many of the green changes were inspired by local Indigenous knowledge. “These villages have survived because this inherent knowledge of adaptation to harsh conditions has existed for thousands of years,” she said.

Using locally available materials like porous limestone and sandstone that allow air to flow through the walls; lifting structures slightly off the ground to prevent heat absorption from below; adding darkened entryways; installing reflective roofs; and utilizing angled windows and adjustable shading were used to mitigate heat while allowing light to enter.

‘Cooling is the next frontier’

“The hotter it gets, the longer the summers, the more people will look to solutions like air conditioning,” El-Battouty said. “We need to question the housing sector itself. Is it built to mitigate heat or not?”

The role of housing in combating heat should also have a bigger focus at events like the annual UN climate change conference. El-Battouty added, “We need to treat cooling as something incredibly important – just as much as renewable and clean energy. Cooling is the next frontier.”

This article was originally published on January 25, 2022, and has been updated with the latest figures on electricity consumption and cooling needs from the International Energy Agency and Ember.