Voters in Poland are set to head to the polls on May 18 to cast their ballots in the initial round of the presidential election. The outcome of this election carries significant weight beyond the competition for the presidency between the two leading contenders: the left-wing liberal Rafal Trzaskowski and the national-conservative Karol Nawrocki.
The results of the election will determine whether the pro-European, center-left government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk can advance its agenda, which has been hindered by President Andrzej Duda over the past 18 months. In Poland, unlike in countries such as France or the United States, the president has more influence than in Germany, with the capacity to veto legislation and influence national policy.
Tusk’s coalition government, which took office in December 2023 following eight years of national-conservative rule under Jaroslaw Kaczynski’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, had ambitious plans for pro-democracy reforms, liberalization of abortion laws, enhanced rights for the LGBTQ+ community, and media reform, among others. However, these attempts have faced persistent blocks from the national-conservative president Duda, who either employs his veto power or refers bills to the constitutional court, populated with PiS supporters. This has led to widespread disappointment and disillusionment among Polish voters.
Reflecting this dynamic, Tusk has thrown his support behind Trzaskowski, the mayor of Warsaw, who is seen as having the best chance of winning despite narrowly losing to Duda in the last presidential election. Trzaskowski, a seasoned politician and member of Tusk’s Civic Platform party, aligns with the left-wing stance, advocating for liberal abortion laws, removal of religious symbols from public spaces, and supporting the EU’s climate policy.
On the other side, Nawrocki, an independent candidate but with the tacit support of PiS, aims to leverage conservative voters who typically do not support PiS directly. His campaign, however, has been marred by controversies, including alleged underworld connections and a housing scandal. Nawrocki has adopted a platform critical of immigrants, the EU’s Green Deal, and portrays Germany as an adversary to Poland, seeking to cut aid for Ukraine and promote an anti-EU stance.
Nawrocki’s campaign has also gained notable international support, including a photo opportunity with US President Donald Trump and an endorsement from the far-right Romanian presidential candidate George Simion. Meanwhile, Slawomir Mentzen, an extreme right-wing candidate from the Confederation Liberty and Independence, has seen his support wane after initially posing a challenge to Nawrocki, focusing on fiscal and societal critical physicochemicals and EU policies.
A runoff election between Trzaskowski and Nawrocki is expected on June 1, contingent on the first round not delivering a decisive winner. The outcome is far from certain, with the support from the ruling coalition’s base and Mentzen’s younger followers potentially influencing the final results.
Source: https://www.dw.com/en/tusk-government-anxious-ahead-of-poland-s-presidential-vote/a-72562006?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
