However, these aren’t normal times and the election is in Greenland, suggesting it could be a starting point for further geopolitical upheaval in the Northern Hemisphere.
First of all, because backers of Greenland’s independence hope the election might produce a strong mandate for Greenland’s complete separation from Denmark. Currently, Greenland, a former Danish colony, is a self-governing territory of Denmark.
And second, as US President Donald Trump has been discussing making Greenland part of the US since his election last November.
Greenland’s Mineral Wealth
Trump has spoken frequently of how controlling Greenland would be in the interests of US security. Since the 1950s, the US has run the Pituffik Space Base, in the northwest of Greenland, which plays a crucial role in missile warnings and space surveillance.
Beyond security concerns, economics might also play a part in Trump’s interest in Greenland. There are thought to be significant oil, gas, gold, uranium, and zinc deposits in the south of Greenland.
Due to climate change, which is thawing Greenland’s ground out, mining these deposits will eventually become easier.
In 2019, during his first term in office, Trump offered to buy Greenland. The Danish government promptly rejected the proposal.
This term, Trump continues to express expansionist intentions regarding Canada, the Panama Canal, Gaza, and Greenland.
Even before he took up office in January, Trump sent his son, Donald Trump Jr., to Greenland, albeit officially as a tourist.
A few weeks later, a poll showed that only 6% of Greenlanders wanted their island to become part of the US, while 85% opposed the idea.
In his speech to Congress in early March, President Trump reiterated his wish, directing his comments to the people of Greenland.
“We strongly support your right to determine your own future,” Trump said. However, just two sentences later, he seemed to contradict himself, stating, “I think we’re going to get it – one way or another.”
Foreign Influence?
Given this and the upcoming elections, Greenland has had to address the possibility of external attempts to influence the vote, such as from Russia or China, both of whom are also pursuing their security agendas in the Arctic.
Denmark’s national security and intelligence service, PET, warned of Russian disinformation.
“In the weeks before the election, several fake profiles were observed on social media, including profiles masquerading as Danish and Greenlandic politicians, contributing to a polarization of public opinion,” PET stated, without linking the accounts to a specific country.
Johan Farkas, an assistant professor in media studies at the University of Copenhagen, is familiar with these kinds of posts, which also circulate in Russian media. However, he doesn’t think they would have a significant impact on Greenland’s elections since most locals speak Greenlandic, an Inuit language.
“Greenland is a very small and close-knit community. Influencing campaigns or posting fake accounts won’t be an easy task. My concern as a disinformation researcher has more been around how this plays out in macro-politics,” Farkas says, referring to the weeks before Germany’s own recent federal election.
During that time, US billionaire Elon Musk appeared on social media with the leader of Germany’s far-right political party and US Vice President JD Vance called on German centrist parties to cooperate with the far right.
Denmark’s parliament, the 31-seat Inatsisartut, passed a law in early February banning foreign and anonymous donations to local political parties, with an exception for Danish donations.
And Trump’s proposal to buy their country is not the only thing locals will be voting on in the upcoming election.
Independence from Denmark
Approximately 57,000 Greenlanders worry about other issues too. For instance, which mineral resources their island should be developing and whether, and which, foreign partners should get concessions to do so.
The debate around mining revenues is part of the argument for becoming independent from Denmark. Allowing foreign interests to mine in Greenland would make Greenland less dependent on Denmark.
This is because Denmark contributes over half of Greenland’s budget revenue to cover employment, healthcare, and education, with the annual cost of administrative support and direct financial transfers amounting to at least $700 million per year.
Independence is a long-term goal, Greenlandic Prime Minister Mute Egede said after Trump’s speech to Congress. “We do not want to be Americans, nor Danes; we are Kalaallit. The Americans and their leader must understand that. We are not for sale and cannot be taken. Our future is determined by us in Greenland.”
Opinion polls show that the majority of Greenlanders probably want independence from Denmark but remain undecided as to when and how that will happen.
And that uncertainty won’t change after the election on March 11 either, says Farkas. “I think the most important thing is to zoom out and acknowledge that this is not a threat that goes away the moment this election is over.”
“As long as this declared US wish to take over Greenland is there, there is a risk that we might suddenly see an escalation of this kind of influence campaign.”
This story was originally published in German.
