ByEuronews Green
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Recent research has illustrated the impact of climate change on the intensification of supercell thunderstorms across Europe.
The study, featured in Science Advances, alerts that the Alpine area and segments of Central and Eastern Europe are likely to witness a marked surge in storm activity.
If global temperatures increase by 3°C above pre-industrial times, there could be a 50% spike in storm frequency on the northern flank of the Alps.
Supercell storms are already identified as the most destructive weather phenomena, correlating with rising insurance claims. Insight into their formation and the evolution due to a warming planet is key for disaster preparedness, researchers underscore.
Understanding Supercell Thunderstorms
Differentiating them from ordinary storms, supercells consist of a deep, spinning column called a mesocyclone. This distinction provides them with formidable strength and longevity. Unlike typical thunderstorms that dissipate quickly, supercells can persist for hours, spanning wide areas.
They take shape under conditions featuring warm, moist air near the surface, cooler air aloft, and changing wind directions with elevation. These factors instill atmospheric instability that sets the scene for a supercell to emerge.
Generally occurring in summer months, supercells bring about strong winds, large hail, and intense rain. Despite being infrequent in Europe, these storms dramatically increase the spectrum of thunderstorm-related hazards and economic losses.
Escalating Damage Risks from Supercell Thunderstorms
Severe convective storms, which include supercells, prolonged wind events, and significant hail occurrences, have led to an upward trend in insurance losses. In 2023, they topped the lists as the world’s most economically damaging natural perils, incurring nearly €55 billion in insured losses.
Although comparatively scarce in Europe, contributing to a fraction of the continent’s thunderstorms, they can still inflict severe localized damage.
In June, a supercell storm hit L’Hôpital-le-Grand in France’s Loire region, yielding hailstones up to 6 cm in diameter that caused significant damage to properties and vehicles.
Another supercell thunderstorm that hit Italy in August led to widespread devastation across Rimini and Ravenna. It unleashed intense hail, rain, and winds nearing 100 km/h, uprooting trees, damaging vehicles, and obliterating crops. The Rimini-Ravenna rail line was disrupted when a tree fell on the tracks.
Monitoring Europe’s Supercell Thunderstorms
Historically, tracking supercells across Europe has been challenging due to disparities in national weather radar systems.
Monika Feldmann, from the University of Bern’s Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks and the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, points out the cross-border detection difficulties.
To counter these obstacles, Bern’s Mobiliar Lab for Natural Risks and the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, alongside ETH Zurich, crafted a high-resolution simulation model.
Employing digital mapping technologies, the model simulates storm cells on a remarkably detailed scale, providing a far more detailed picture of storm evolution than was previous achievable.
Hotspots for Supercell Thunderstorms
The Alps emerge as a hotspot for supercell thunderstorms under the new modeling. The area witnesses approximately 38 super storms per season on the northern side and 61 on the southern.
With 3°C warming, the research predicts a rise of up to 50% in these occurrences in this mountainous region, escalating risks for nations like Switzerland, Austria, northern Italy, and southern Germany. Conversely, the Iberian Peninsula and southwest France may observe a decline.
Overall, the researchers project an 11% increase in supercell thunderstorms across Europe.
“These regional variations highlight the varied impacts of climate change in Europe,” Feldmann adds.
The study points to the crucial need for European nations to brace themselves for a future marked by more frequent and intense severe weather events. Infrastructure, agriculture, emergency operations, and insurance frameworks must all evolve.
Decoding the genesis of these supercell storms, according to Feldmann, is pivotal for enhancing readiness.
