Ukraine agreed to a preliminary 30-day ceasefire proposal from the Trump administration, contingent on Russia’s acceptance. The proposal is seen as a major step towards ending the brutal war, but security experts question whether Russian President Vladimir Putin can be trusted to adhere to the terms of the agreement. Russia has repeatedly violated international agreements intended to protect Ukraine’s sovereignty.
The Minsk Agreements, which attempted to end Russia’s aggression in eastern Ukraine, have been violated by Putin’s invasion in 2022. Some world leaders and security officials argue that achieving a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine is unlikely in the near term, as Putin is under no real pressure to do so.
Michael Ryan, a former deputy assistant secretary of Defense for European and NATO Policy, argues that a Trump-brokered peace deal needs to reflect on the lessons learned from previously failed agreements. He suggested that the reconstruction of Ukraine should include economic reconciliation with Russia, just as the U.S. did after World War II. The Russians, however, believed that it was not implemented in their case as they expected the U.S. to do the same after the Cold War.
Rebekah Koffler, a former DIA intelligence officer, states that a deal with Russia would still face challenges, including occupied territories, international recognition of such lands, international aid, and support for Ukraine. Each issue alone is a massive undertaking for negotiation, and Putin is unlikely to compromise, believing he is in a strong position. Ukraine has fought fiercely to defend its regions and is unlikely to give them up.
Ultimately, Koffler argues that Putin will not leave eastern Ukraine as it has always been a red line for him. The only way to ensure that Putin doesn’t invade another country is to strengthen NATO, increase defense spending, and develop actual deterrence and counter-strategy that addresses every prong of Putin’s strategy.
Source: https://www.foxnews.com/world/even-trump-secures-ukraine-russia-peace-deal-can-putin-trusted
