President Trump is urging Latin American countries to move closer to Washington’s sphere of influence, invoking echoes of the Monroe Doctrine when the United States declared the Western Hemisphere as its sphere of authority.
This week, China’s leader, Xi Jinping, is hosting President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of Brazil and other prominent officials from Latin America and the Caribbean in Beijing to emphasize China’s intention to maintain its strong presence in the region. Many Latin American governments also wish to stay aligned with Beijing — primarily as an economic partner, but for some, also as a counterbalance to U.S. influence, according to experts.
“What the people of Latin America and the Caribbean seek are independence and self-determination, not the so-called ‘new Monroe Doctrine,'” China’s Assistant Foreign Minister, Miao Deyu, stated in Beijing, referencing President James Monroe’s 1823 declaration that warned European powers against interfering in the Americas.
The U.S. Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has declared that the Trump administration will prioritize the Americas. However, Mr. Trump’s sweeping tariffs and threats to take over the Panama Canal have unsettled leaders in Latin America, particularly in countries already cautious of Washington’s influence.
Even if Mr. Trump is not mentioned in the official statements from Mr. Xi’s meetings with Mr. Lula, and possibly other Latin American officials, the implications will be clear.
“Lula sees China as a partner in rebalancing global power, not just a trade partner but a geopolitical counterweight to U.S. hegemony,” said Matias Spektor, a professor of politics and international relations at Fundação Getulio Vargas, a Brazilian university. “Lula’s strategy is clear: diversify Brazil’s alliances, reduce dependency on Washington, and assert Brazil as a mover and shaker in an increasingly multipolar world.”
Nonetheless, behind closed doors, China’s talks with Mr. Lula and other Latin American and Caribbean leaders are unlikely to be merely about mutual admiration. Mr. Lula is the most prominent among the leaders assembling in Beijing for a meeting on Tuesday between Chinese officials and ministers from the Community of Latin American and Caribbean States, or CELAC, which excludes the United States and Canada.
Colombia’s recently elected president, Gustavo Petro, a leftist former rebel, will also attend, according to Chinese media. However, the names of other attendees were unclear, and these meetings are typically attended by foreign ministers and other government officials.
Over the past two decades, China has become a significant buyer of minerals and other resources from Brazil, Peru, Chile, and other Latin American countries. Chinese products, including cars and appliances, have dominated regional markets, and Chinese investments have funded infrastructure projects such as bridges, dams, and ports. Brazil and other major commodities exporters are hoping to replicate what happened during Mr. Trump’s first term when China increased purchases of soybeans, iron ore, and other products from Latin America due to U.S. tariffs.
Last year, trade in goods between China and Latin America reached nearly $519 billion, nearly double the value of a decade ago, according to Chinese customs statistics.
Despite his friendliness towards Beijing, Mr. Lula has increased tariffs on iron, steel, and fiber optic cable, products primarily imported from China. Across Latin America, there is significant concern that Chinese exporters, shut out of the U.S. market, will divert cheap goods to the region, potentially overwhelming local manufacturers, as stated by Ryan Berg, the director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“These are countries with a history of protectionism, interested in protecting local jobs and industries,” Mr. Berg stated in an interview. “Even though countries like Brazil have good relationships with China, they have nevertheless moved almost in line with the United States to protect certain industries, fearing they could become dumping grounds for, say, Chinese steel and aluminum.”
Indeed, Mexico’s diplomatic caution masks a trade relationship where China is making significant inroads. Primarily driven by a surge in Chinese cars on Mexico’s roads, Mexico now accounts for approximately 2.4% of China’s total exports. This places Mexico ahead of Brazil, which absorbs only 1.7% of China’s exports, as China’s most important export market in Latin America.
“Mexican elites and the government are torn in this new triangular relationship” with the United States and China, stated Professor Enrique Dussel Peters, an author of “Latin America, China, and Great Power Competition.” “However, this situation is not sufficient for Mexico, considering China’s substantial presence in Mexico.”
Mr. Xi expressed optimism that he can maintain Mr. Lula and many other significant Latin American leaders’ support, largely through persistent diplomacy and continued orders of iron ore, soybeans, and other commodities. Mr. Lula also expressed hope that China can aid Brazil in advancing new technologies, including space and green energy.
When Mr. Xi visited Brazil for a G20 leaders’ summit in November, he included a state visit there. This year, he is expected to visit Rio de Janeiro for a summit in July of the BRICS group of developing countries, originally founded by Brazil, Russia, India, and China. Mr. Biden’s only visit to Brazil as president — for the G20 summit — took place only after he had lost the presidential election.
“The fact that we are much closer, but have had less frequent high-level visits than Xi is a barrier to regional prioritization and a bad sign from a strategic perspective,” Mr. Berg remarked. “Mr. Rubio’s familiarity with the region and fluency in Spanish will likely change a lot,” he noted.
In the short term, China may focus on placing more orders for soybeans and other goods from Brazil. “There is anxiety about China crowding out Brazilian manufacturers, but the broader reality is clear,” said Professor Spektor, a Brazilian academic. “China’s demand underpins Brazil’s economic stability.”
Simon Romero in Mexico City contributed reporting.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/12/world/asia/china-lula-latam-trade.html
