When military and civilian experts on peacekeeping began meeting in Geneva in the spring of 2022, they emphasized the importance of discretion. Their topic was sensitive: how to implement a future cease-fire in Ukraine.

Last week, that group of experts went public for the first time, publishing a 31-page paper that explores the technical aspects of monitoring and enforcing a cease-fire along the more than 700-mile front line. The paper was shared last month through another confidential channel: a recurring meeting in Geneva between American, Russian, and Ukrainian foreign policy experts who have close ties to their governments.

The paper, one of the most detailed templates for a Ukraine cease-fire to have been published, marks a significant shift in the topic of planning for a cease-fire, moving from a controversial and theoretical exercise to a pressing and practical matter.

France and Britain have proposed sending thousands of their troops to Ukraine after the fighting stops. However, there is limited clarity regarding what responsibilities that force would have. Russia has shown no indication of agreeing to such a force, and President Trump has provided few assurances of American support.

“One of the most extensive cease-fire monitoring operations will be happening very soon, with no planning so far on what that would entail,” said Walter Kemp, a European security specialist who drafted the Geneva group’s document. Mr. Trump has stated that he wants a quick settlement and, in the last week, has taken steps to force Ukraine to the negotiating table. However, there is no evidence to suggest that Russian President Vladimir V. Putin wants to make a deal.

For a significant portion of Russia’s three-year invasion of Ukraine, the idea of a cease-fire seemed far-fetched and, according to some analysts, even taboo. Western leaders and Kyiv focused on the battlefield rather than the complications of a potential compromise and hesitated to discuss the possibility that Ukraine would fall short of victory.

Last week’s paper, developed by the Geneva Center for Security Policy, a Swiss government-funded think tank, provides specific details. It suggests a buffer zone at least six miles wide to separate the two armies, along with a proposal for 5,000 civilians and police officers to patrol it. The paper argues that approximately 10,000 foreign troops will be necessary to ensure the monitors’ safety.

The monitors would report on compliance with the cease-fire and the withdrawal of heavy weaponry from an agreed-upon distance from the buffer zone. The mission would operate under the mandate of the United Nations or another international body.

Such a force would help prevent tensions and misunderstandings from escalating into new fighting, but it would remain distinct from any “tripwire” force designed to provide Ukraine with a security guarantee in the event of another Russian invasion.

Thomas Greminger, who directed the Geneva center, stated that he brought together a group of cease-fire experts soon after the 2022 invasion began to develop options for making a future armistice more durable than the one in 2015. The experts included officials from international organizations and experienced military personnel involved in peacekeeping efforts. They were not publicly identified due to the sensitivity of the topic for their institutions.

The participants in the meetings acted in their personal capacity, though they were expected to be briefed by their governments beforehand and debrief them afterward.

It is unclear what impact, if any, the cease-fire proposal will have on the ongoing negotiations, particularly given the personal approaches adopted by Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin. However, this effort highlights the behind-the-scenes diplomacy that has characterized the war, wherein the West and Ukraine have sought to isolate Russia while engaging in private discussions on certain issues with Moscow.

Back-channel negotiations with Russia have led to a series of prisoner-of-war exchanges and the deal that allowed Ukraine to export its grain through the Black Sea. Both Russia and Ukraine “have found ways to cooperate on issues of mutual interest,” according to the Geneva center’s paper.

The proposal suggests that a joint commission consisting of both Russian and Ukrainian military officials would work with the international monitors. Through the commission, both sides could hold each other accountable and address issues such as prisoner releases, mine clearance, and civilian corridors through the buffer zone.

The implementation of a cease-fire in Ukraine would pose a significant challenge, mainly due to the length of the boundary between Ukrainian and Russian-occupied territories and the advanced weaponry available to both sides. Accurate monitoring would be crucial to reducing the likelihood of a future armistice being violated.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/09/world/europe/ukraine-peace-plan-russia-war.html