Germans are set to cast their votes this Sunday in an early election that has taken on added significance due to the new US administration’s actions in Europe. The snap poll comes after Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s unpopular and unstable three-party government fell apart in November, seven months ahead of schedule. This vote falls amidst Europe’s search for strong leadership and its recalibration of ties with the United States, amid the US administration’s imposition of tariffs, exclusion of Europe from Ukraine negotiations, and its cozy relationship with an authoritarian Russia.

Mr. Scholz’s Social Democrats are expected to place third, trailing Friedrich Merz’s conservative Christian Democratic Union, who are in the lead. The hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is likely to be second, capitalizing on voter dissatisfaction and migration fears. Despite efforts to inject excitement into the campaign, polls have remained largely unchanged. AfD’s showing could be its strongest ever, indicating significant discontent with mainstream parties.

The incapacity of any party to govern alone means the post-election scenario could involve coalitions. Mr. Merz’s center-right alliance and the far-right AfD could command a broad majority, but with AfD linked to neo-Nazi ideology, mainstream parties, including Mr. Merz himself, have vowed to maintain a “firewall” to keep the extreme right out of power. Despite being left-leaning, Social Democrats stand as Mr. Merz’s most plausible partner.

Smaller parties, including Die Linke on the far left, could influence the political landscape if they surpass the 5% threshold to enter Parliament. Their performance will be critical, with the pro-business Free Democratic Party’s future riding on the vote as well. The “firewall” against AfD and the potential for fragmented coalitions are key issues to watch in this uncertain political climate.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/23/world/europe/germany-election.html