Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Taiwan’s leaders expressed solidarity with Ukraine, emphasizing that both countries are fellow democracies facing threats from authoritarian neighbors. Recently, however, President Trump’s stance against Ukraine may prompt debate in Taiwan concerning the reliability of American support in the event of an escalating conflict with China, which claims Taiwan as its territory. This concern stems from Taiwan’s efforts over the past few years to highlight the interconnectedness of democracies’ fates and how events in Ukraine impact Taiwan. With the U.S. seemingly reversing its stance on the Ukraine war, Taiwan may question the firmness of its alliance with the U.S. For decades, Taiwan has faced potential invasion from China, and its defense has relied on U.S. support. The current shift in U.S. policy towards Ukraine could lead Taiwan to reassess its own position and seek to secure Trump’s support. Such developments may fuel existing public opinion in Taiwan that the island cannot wholly trust the promises of Washington, which has repeatedly seemed to abandon Taiwan. There is anxiety about the possibility of a transactional approach by Trump if conflict with China arises, especially given his comments that may indicate a potential trade-off of Taiwan’s interests for a deal with China. Despite these concerns, Taiwanese officials are maintaining a positive stance on relations with Washington, avoiding any public disagreement with Trump. They emphasize the importance of self-reliance and military strength in safeguarding Taiwan’s future. In particular, Taiwan perceives the success of Ukraine in defending against aggression as crucial for its own security. While Trump’s rhetoric on Taiwan reflects criticism over its military spending and the dominance in semiconductor manufacturing, Taiwanese feel that their economic significance and the strategic context of U.S.-China relations could lead to continued partnership. In response to Trump’s demand for increased semiconductor production in the U.S., Taiwan is preparing to propose initiatives that could align with his priorities while ensuring the continued strength of its relationship with Washington.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/25/world/asia/trump-ukraine-taiwan.html