The Trump administration’s decision to withdraw foreign aid and dismantle the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) is expected to result in immense human suffering, according to estimates from the agency itself. The alarming projections include:
- Up to 18 million additional cases of malaria each year and as many as 166,000 additional deaths;
- 200,000 children becoming paralyzed with polio annually and hundreds of millions of infections;
- One million children untreated for severe acute malnutrition, which is often fatal, yearly;
- More than 28,000 new cases of infectious diseases like Ebola and Marburg each year.
These stern forecasts were detailed in memos by Nicholas Enrich, the acting assistant administrator for global health at USAID. Mr. Enrich was placed on administrative leave after releasing these memos. He stated that the potential health crises are a result of the political leadership created “intentional and/or unintentional obstacles” that prevented the implementation of aid programs. The memos further described how the agency’s global health workforce shrunk from 783 to less than 70 staff members.
In an interview, Mr. Enrich revealed that he disclosed the memos after being put on leave to clarify the elimination of USAID staff and the termination of thousands of life-saving grants. He insisted that they were never truly allowed to deliver lifesaving humanitarian assistance. The State Department did not immediately respond to these claims.
In January, the Trump administration froze funds for foreign aid. Although Secretary of State Marco Rubio provided a temporary waiver for lifesaving humanitarian assistance on January 28, very little money has been distributed, effectively closing aid programs globally and causing organizations to furlough or dismiss workers. Despite the waiver, officials from USAID’s Bureau for Global Health remained hopeful and attempted to implement the exceptions.
However, on Wednesday, the Trump administration abruptly ended around 5,800 USAID-funded projects, including those that had received waivers. Mr. Enrich confirmed that it was then clear they would not be implementing the aid under the waiver. He also mentioned that he wanted to compile another memo to demonstrate how he and his colleagues had communicated the risks of disrupting critical programs to two political appointees at the agency.
Matthew Kavanagh, the director of the Georgetown University Center for Global Health Policy and Politics, believes the Trump administration is violating court orders and not delivering the lifesaving aid they claimed to fund under the waiver. He stated that unless reversed, the administration’s actions will cost millions of lives, based on their estimates.
Mr. Enrich’s memo highlights additional severe consequences, including uncontrollable outbreaks of mpox and bird flu, rising mortality rates for mothers and children, and a significant increase in drug-resistant tuberculosis. Disruptions to overseas TB programs could result in more patients arriving in the United States, where treating one multidrug-resistant TB patient costs over $154,000. The administration is planning to turn back migrants, partly due to concerns about TB.
The potential impact could also extend beyond human health to U.S. businesses, agriculture, and families. Maternal and child health and nutrition programs help stabilize economies and political climates in other countries. Dr. Kavanagh stressed that dismantling USAID and its programs not only puts millions of marginalized individuals at risk of death but also triggers a constitutional crisis driven by cruelty.
Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/03/02/health/usaid-cuts-deaths-infections.html
