Britain has observed President Trump’s tariffs with a mixture of shock, fascination, and uneasiness. The nation had embarked on a similar venture of economic isolation after voting to leave the European Union in 2016. Almost nine years after the Brexit vote, the country is still grappling with the consequences of that decision.

The lessons from Brexit are now highly relevant as Mr. Trump adopts a similar strategy to build walls around the United States, with critics labeling Brexit as the greatest act of economic self-harm by a Western nation since the end of World War II. Britain is now facing the possibility that Brexit may not have been the worst in terms of economic damage.

Even Mr. Trump’s recent brief reversal of some of his tariffs due to a revolt in the bond market reminded the U.K. of Liz Truss, a former prime minister who was forced to rescind radical tax cuts that had frightened markets. Her ill-conceived policy was part of a cycle of extreme measures that followed Britain’s decision to leave the EU’s trading bloc.

However, there is still debate over the extent of Brexit’s impact on the British economy, as it’s been difficult to untangle the effects from other events such as the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine, and Mr. Trump’s tariffs. Britain’s overall trade volume is estimated to be around 15% lower than it would have been if it remained in the EU, and long-term productivity is about 4% lower due to trade barriers with Europe.

Investment in Britain was lower even before Brexit and the divergence from the EU only magnified the issue by fostering uncertainty that deterred private investment. The debate surrounding the terms of Britain’s departure led to a paralyzed period from the referendum to its formal exit in 2020.

Additionally, Brexit’s key effects may not have manifested yet, according to some analysts. There are concerns that Britain must choose between reconciling with Europe or preserving ties with Mr. Trump’s America, with one diplomat suggesting that the worst legacies of Brexit are yet to come.

Brexit has also made Britain’s economy skittish, leading to investor hesitancy and keeping mortgage rates elevated. The chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, has been constrained from taking bold measures to stimulate the economy due to the backlash against Ms. Truss’s free-market policies.

The coincidence between Brexit and Mr. Trump’s policies has also raised questions about the future of the Republican party in the U.S. Brexit deeply damaged the Conservative party by dividing and radicalizing it, and some analysts wonder if the Republican party will face a similar fate. However, the differences between Brexit and tariff policies were not entirely driven by ideological stands, and the situation was more complex.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/world/europe/how-brexit-a-startling-act-of-economic-self-harm-foreshadowed-trumps-tariffs.html