President Trump has expressed trust in Russian President Vladimir V. Putin’s willingness to uphold any negotiated peace deal on Ukraine, but many Russians who fled the country during the war are uncertain about returning. These individuals, who predominantly left in the early months of the war, lack faith that the circumstances that drove them abroad, including the suppression of political dissent, will change soon, whether or not Mr. Trump secures a cease-fire. Conversations about a possible truce have stalled after Mr. Putin rejected a proposal by Mr. Trump and Ukraine for a 30-day truce.

Pavel Snop, a real-estate agent from St. Petersburg who fled to Turkey three years ago, believes that the war will only end when Putin is no longer in power. He thinks that Putin will continue to negotiate, but not for the benefit of his country and its citizens, rather for sanctions relief for himself and his associates.

The Kremlin’s treatment of the approximately 800,000 Russians who fled the country after the invasion is a sensitive political and economic issue, as it highlights that many Russians opposed the war or did not wish to fight in it.

In addition to the political implications, the exodus of highly educated professionals has also damaged the economy. Many emigrants are established in professional fields that are in high demand, and their departure creates a shortage in certain sectors like information technology and higher education.

Although some Russians abroad miss their home and struggle to settle elsewhere, they generally do not believe that the Kremlin will cease persecuting individuals with anti-government views, regardless of what happens in Ukraine. Only a small percentage of survey respondents said they would consider returning to Russia if they saw democratic changes.

The Russian government has shown no intention of easing restrictions on individuals who left the country, with officials even threatening punishment for those who have emulated abroad. Russia’s loss of young, talented individuals is likely to significantly harm its long-term economic development.

In summary, President Trump’s trust in Putin’s willingness to abide by a negotiated peace deal is not universally shared by Russians who fled the country during the war, who doubt that Russia will change its oppressive policies in the near future.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/06/world/europe/russian-exiles-return-putin-war-ceasefire.html