The Ukrainian Navy patrol boat, armed with a 25-millimeter machine gun, scans the Black Sea for any signs of enemy activity. In the command room, Captain Mykhailo and his crew monitor screens that show Russian mine-laden waters and track drones in the area. The crew’s mission is to defend Odesa’s waters and keep them safe for commercial traffic, a task they have succeeded in after a year of patrols alongside other Ukrainian Navy vessels.

Russia’s Navy has been pushed far from Ukrainian shores, allowing Ukraine’s commercial shipping to rebound to near prewar levels. Captain Mykhailo’s efforts are evident in the presence of a Panama-flagged ship approaching a Ukrainian port to be loaded with grain. While a ceasefire has been proposed, Ukraine’s military and commercial achievements in the Black Sea have led many to question its benefits.

Despite the ceasefire commitment, the countries are still negotiating how it will come into force. Navy officers and business owners in Odesa are weighing the pros and cons of such a truce. While a ceasefire might protect the ports from Russian attacks, it could also mean relinquishing Ukraine’s strategic advantage at sea, an area where they hold the upper hand. Ukraine remains skeptical of Moscow’s conditions for the truce, including the lifting of Western sanctions and a return to a previous U.N.-backed deal that would allow Russia to inspect commercial ships.

Pavlo Palisa, a senior military adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine, pointed to Kyiv’s success in pushing Russian ships out of key parts of the sea as a reason not to make concessions. The situation remains uncertain as a ceasefire in the Black Sea does not have full support from Ukrainian military officials.

Ukraine’s ability to reject a ceasefire in the Black Sea speaks volumes about the drastic shift in fortunes there. Initially, Russia’s navy ships came within 15 miles of Ukraine’s coast, forcing residents to brace for an assault. Russia’s control of the Black Sea meant that Ukrainian ports were blocked, affecting the country’s economy and global food security. A U.N.-brokered deal allowed Ukraine to export its goods, but under a deal allowing Russia to inspect ships for weapons. Eventually, Russia withdrew from that deal and threatened commercial ships traveling to and from Ukraine.

To restart exports, Ukraine began a campaign to drive back Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, using sea drones and missiles to destroy or damage more than a quarter of its major warships. This forced Russia’s fleet to retreat, allowing Ukraine to secure a new shipping corridor along its coast before entering the territorial waters of NATO members.

As a result, more ships now use the new corridor than during the U.N.-backed agreement. Black Sea food exports are also nearing prewar levels. Experts see little benefit for Ukraine in a Black Sea cease-fire, as the country has been successful in defending its waters and maintaining its grain exports.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/07/world/europe/ukraine-russia-black-sea-truce.html