China is on the cusp of an immensely significant week, and there’s a palpable sense that it is aware of the world’s scrutiny.
Amidst a tumultuous era for global governance, as conflicts rage and longstanding international standards are doubted, China is strategically engaging in diplomatic maneuvers, using this week as a canvas for demonstrating its capabilities.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is a guest of honour. Pic: Reuters
Certainly, at a juncture when Donald Trump’s America appears increasingly unilateral, with traditional allies overlooked or alienated due to tariffs, China is showcasing its convening power, leadership capacity, and its subtly veiled aspiration to establish a new world order with distinct anti-American overtones.
You may not have heard of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation Summit or the SCO, but it marks the start of a series of major events in China this week, bringing together leaders from some of the world’s most significant and other might say ‘disruptive’ countries.
On its face, it’s a security forum, initially formed with just a handful of China’s neighbors to address border disputes. However, it has expanded into a network of some 26 countries across Asia, Europe, and Africa, representing a remarkable 43% of the world’s population and 23% of its GDP.
Some have referred to it as the “axis of upheaval,” a label that feels justified given the guest list, which includes leaders from Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan, Myanmar, Belarus, and Turkey.
While in attendance, they are not bound by a mutual defense treaty, and there are unlikely to be any major pacts or agreements, but the optics are sure to be striking and deliberately designed to unsettle Western observers.
Foremost, the focus will be on the war in Ukraine and Vladimir Putin‘s faltering peace efforts. Putin, as a guest of honor, will likely leverage the summit to bolster support among nations that have sustained his country throughout the conflict.
Despite its professed neutrality on Ukraine, China has been a crucial economic lifeline for Putin’s endeavors, providing various forms of support including components, a lucrative market for oil and gas, as well as significant diplomatic backing.
India’s Prime Minister Modi is welcomed by the Indian community in Tianjin. Pic: Reuters
Although China is somewhat interested in the war’s conclusion, as unpredictability is distasteful to it, and it is already preparing to secure contracts for rebuilding Ukraine. Nonetheless, it doesn’t want to see an outcome that undermines Putin while simultaneously elevating Trump’s stature. In China’s view, the war provides a useful distraction for America; as Trump is occupied with Putin, he has less capacity to direct his ire towards China.
Narendra Modi‘s participation is also a remarkable coup for Xi Jinping. Don’t be fooled, there is no love shared between the world’s two most populous nations; they are mired in a bitter border dispute that escalated violently in 2020 and are competitors in Asia. It’s been seven years since Modi last visited China.
However, G20’s ailing relationship with the US further lends to China’s diplomacy. The US had been courting India as a regional ally for years, but now Trump has increased tariffs to 50% on Indian goods, and there was reported anger from Modi over how Trump took credit for alleviating tensions with Pakistan earlier in the summer.
China happily embraces those whom Trump repels.
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China’s diplomatic fervor will climax on Wednesday with a grand military parade through Beijing’s Tiananmen Square to celebrate the 80th anniversary of Japan’s surrender in World War II.
This time Xi will be flanked by Putin and Kim Jong Un of North Korea, marking the first time the leader of the reclusive nation has attended a multilateral event of this scale. They will witness tens of thousands of soldiers parading alongside “fourth generation” weaponry, including some unveilings to the public.
A security guard outside the convention centre. Pic: Reuters
It culminates a week dense with symbolic gestures.
Ultimately, this week is China affirming its power.
Its military might, undeniable, but its political power as well.
China’s allegiance, economic prowess, and provision of alternatives at a time when America is increasingly unpredictable.
The question is to what extent the rest of the world is embracing this narrative, from here, it seems many are.
