Reductions in foreign aid could lead to an increase in HIV deaths and new infections, according to a recent study.

Researchers caution that cuts in funding could erase decades of progress and cause a surge in HIV cases and fatalities, potentially returning numbers to levels seen in the early 2000s.

They estimate that without sufficient funding, there could be up to 10.8 million more HIV infections in low and middle-income countries by 2030.

Additionally, HIV-related deaths among children and adults could reach up to 2.9 million by 2030.

This study follows Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to reduce overseas spending from 0.5% of gross national income to 0.3% to fund defense commitments over the next two years, a move that led to Anneliese Dodds’ resignation as international development minister.

US President Donald Trump has ordered a pause in most US foreign aid spending and announced the country would withdraw from the World Health Organization.

In a paper published in The Lancet HIV, researchers said international donors have contributed around 40% of all HIV funding in low and middle-income countries since 2015.

They said the UK, the US, France, Germany and the Netherlands account for over 90% of international funding.

However, all of these countries have recently announced plans to cut foreign aid, leading to a projected 24% reduction in international HIV funding by 2026.

Using mathematical models, the predominantly Australian-based researchers estimated there could be between 4.4 million and 10.8 million additional new HIV infections in low and middle-income countries by 2030 and between 770,000 and 2.9 million HIV-related deaths in children and adults by the same year.

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“The United States has historically been the largest contributor to global efforts to treat and prevent HIV, but the current cuts to Pepfar [the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief] and USAid-supported programmes have already disrupted access to essential HIV services including for antiretroviral therapy and HIV prevention and testing,” said co-lead study author Dr Debra ten Brink of the Burnet Institute in Australia.

“Looking ahead, if other donor countries reduce funding, decades of progress to treat and prevent HIV could be unravelled.

“It is imperative to secure sustainable financing and avoid a resurgence of the HIV epidemic which could have devastating consequences, not just in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, but globally.”