Donald Trump has always been fascinated by military displays, especially when connected to autocrats. He is likely filled with envy as Vladimir Putin holds military parades in Moscow today, joined by Chinese President Xi Jinping attending the Victory Day celebrations in Red Square.
Allies of Ukraine remain on edge, concerned about any actions that might disrupt the delicate peace talks.
Reports suggest President Trump‘ patience for his much-heralded “peace deal” is wearing thin, with fears of Ukraine being penalized if it doesn’t materialize.
However, punishing Ukraine would have been grossly unjust. Ukraine has done everything it can to accommodate Mr. Trump’s one-sided diplomacy, which thus far appears to favor the aggressor in this bloody conflict.
Pic: AP
The Trump proposal, while not agreeing to the annexation of land taken by force and stopping short of demanding Ukraine’s demilitarization, otherwise aligns pretty closely with Moscow’s demands.
This proposal is being pushed by Steve Witkoff, Mr. Trump’s golf partner turned chief negotiator, a man considered by diplomats to be out of his depth in the realm of international diplomacy.
Like his president, Mr. Witcoff has a history of business dealings with Russian oligarchs, seemingly idealizes the Russian leader, and has even called Ukraine a “false country”.
Moment of truth approaching
Despite giving Mr. Putin the benefit of the doubt so far, a moment of truth is nearing. While Ukraine has agreed to extend the ceasefire in principle, Mr. Putin has not.
Ukraine’s European allies feared that Mr. Trump was about to lose patience with the lack of progress, blame Ukraine, and withdraw U.S. military support.
Then came the agreement on minerals between the U.S. and Ukraine. This breakthrough provided the U.S. president with something to showcase his efforts, calming his desire for some type of agreement. He has, for now, at least, moved on and approved the first $50m of arms sales to Ukraine.
However, the situation remains precarious in the days ahead, with much at stake.
Mr. Putin’s self-declared three-day ceasefire only adds to the uncertainty, carrying the risk of escalation if violated by either side.
Petrirax of Putin’s truce is viewed with skepticism in Kyiv, more as a tactic than a genuine attempt to find peace.
Kyiv argues that if Russia was serious about peace, Mr. Putin would have agreed to a permanent ceasefire proposed by the Trump administration.
What’s more, Russia violated the last truce on Easter almost immediately, using it for surveillance and reinforcement efforts according to Kyiv. Is there a point in pausing, only to be exploited by the invaders?
Escalation possible
Any attempt by Russia to play the same games this time and a Ukrainian retaliation could lead to significant escalation. The same goes for any Ukrainian drone attack on Moscow during Victory Day.
Any major flare-up would not be welcomed by the U.S. president, especially if it overshadows his first international trip as president, a three-day journey through the Middle East.
For the moment, his focus is elsewhere, and he no longer issues threats to withdraw support for Ukraine.
Russian servicemen marching towards Red Square during rehearsals. Pic: AP
Read more from Sky News:
Ukraine and Russia accuse each other of breaching ceasefire
Putin prepares to host dozens of world leaders for Victory Day parade
This could come as a relief to the people in the Ukrainian capital, who would be unwise to do anything that might re-engage the U.S. president, at least for now.
However, their European allies are aware that U.S. involvement in this conflict appears to be waning.
Can they fill the void?
This week, they pay tribute to the sacrifices that brought peace and security to their continent 80 years ago.
Can they muster the political will and unity to achieve the same again, even without American support?
Surprisingly, that question remains unanswered, even after everything we’ve been through.
