When Donald Trump gets upset about Canada, which seems to happen on a daily basis, will he refer to the new leader of Canada’s Liberal Party – and the country’s advancing prime minister – as “Governor Mark Carney?”
Mr. Trump has taunted Canada’s outgoing leader Justin Trudeau by addressing him as “Governor Trudeau” and has enraged the rest of the population by claiming Canada is “the 51st state”.
It will certainly be more challenging to ruffle the feathers of a veteran technocrat like Mark Carney, who steered Canada through the financial crisis as the head of its central bank before handling the aftershocks of Brexit as the governor of the Bank of England.
For Canadian liberals, that’s the draw.
Carney is strategically cool, with a depth of experience in finance and public service – a man practically sporting the word “expert” on his forehead – and they have chosen him to face not one, but two, populist firebrands.
When Mr. Carney is inaugurated as prime minister, he’ll face immediate pressure to call a federal election. At that time, he will need to contend with the pugnacious leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre.
Although a career politician, Mr. Poilievre has tapped into voters’ post-pandemic frustrations concerning unaffordable housing, the cost of living, and environmental taxes, giving him a substantial lead in the opinion polls. However, the polls suggest that most Canadians prefer Mr. Carney to negotiate any deal with the US president.
Yet, Mr. Carney has never run for political office. In fact, he isn’t a member of parliament and is generally considered less of a “people person”. If he intends to confront Mr. Trump in a full-scale trade war, he would need to take his people along with him.
Could he do it?
His acceptance speech for the Liberal Party leadership sounded like a battle cry for the elections.
“America is not Canada. And Canada never, ever will be part of America in any way, shape or form,” he declared.
“We didn’t ask for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone else throws down the gauntlet.” (Throwing down one’s gloves in ice hockey is understood as a sign of readiness for a fight.)
These are tough words, indicating that party members had given him another task: saving the nation.
Trump’s high tariffs on Canadian exports could be disastrous for the Canadian economy. Officials predict that if fully implemented, there could be up to a million job losses.
But the threat that Mr. Carney would have to manage isn’t only economic. According to calls with Mr. Trump and his officials, Mr. Trudeau claimed that Washington is serious about attempting to annex Canada, even questioning the territorial border dividing the country.
Although Mr. Carney remains vague on how he’ll handle the US president, he did confirm in his speech that Mr. Trudeau’s approach to retaliation will continue.
“My government will keep our tariffs in place until the Americans show us respect,” he warned.
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In this era of populism, the Canadian Liberal Party has chosen a man with academic demeanor to take on Donald Trump—a decision that the next national election is likely to confirm.
An epic showdown is on the horizon, and the fate of Canada – a member of NATO and the G7 — could depend on the outcome.