Canada’s ruling Liberals, who recently seemed destined to lose this year’s election, are experiencing a significant resurgence as they contend with the threat of US tariffs, now standing neck and neck with their Conservative rivals, according to the latest polls.

The recent Ipsos survey revealed that the left-leaning Liberals have garnered 38% of the public’s support, just narrowly behind the official opposition Conservative Party, which has 36%. In a remarkable turnaround, the Liberals have erased a substantial 26-point deficit in just six weeks and have run ads comparing Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre to Donald Trump.

The Conservative strategy mainly focused on criticizing the unpopular Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, who announced last month that he would be stepping down after over nine years in office.

The Liberals, who will elect a new leader on 9 March, have seen a steady increase in support following the US President’s threats to impose tariffs on almost all Canadian imports and his comments about wanting Canada as the 51st US state.

Ipsos noted, “The Conservatives are encountering challenges due to rising anti-Trump sentiment and the anticipation of the Liberal party’s new leadership.”

The next election is required to take place by 20 October but might occur much sooner; the new Liberal leader has the option to call for an immediate election.

A Leger poll conducted on Tuesday positioned the Conservatives at 38% public support, with the Liberals at 35%, in contrast to the 43% and 21% respectively in December. Meanwhile, an Ekos poll, also from Tuesday, indicated the Liberals at 38% with the Conservatives at 37%.

The results from these polls suggest that if an election were conducted presently, both the Liberals and Conservatives would fall short of a majority in the 343-seat House of Commons and would require the support of smaller parties to form a government.

Such minority governments are traditionally less stable and tend not to last beyond two years. On Tuesday night, the main contenders in the second Liberal leadership debate advocated for robust countermeasures against the US and insisted that Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre would not effectively represent Canada.

Mark Carney, the former central bank governor, remarked, “Who is the least suitable to confront Donald Trump? It’s Pierre Poilievre. He idolizes the man. He adopts his language. He is not the right candidate for our nation at this crucial time.”

Poilievre’s office was unavailable for immediate comment.

During the debate, former finance minister Chrystia Freeland stated, “Trump is presenting the most significant threat to our country since the second World War.”