Elections taking place on Tuesday will serve as a critical examination of the appeal of Donald Trump’s tumultuous second term and the influence of his close associate, Elon Musk, who has been appointed to undertake a significant overhaul of the US federal government. These elections might also present an opportunity for Democrats to regain some momentum following their surprise victory in a Pennsylvania local race last week. Conversely, a lack of success could indicate that the party is facing a prolonged period of setbacks, with its popularity at historic lows.
The attention is particularly on two previous Republican-held congressional positions in Florida, which are now uncontested and available for competition. These seats have been vacated by Mike Waltz who took up a position in Trump’s cabinet, and Matt Gaetz who stood down to pursue an unsuccessful bid for attorney general.
House Republicans currently have a narrow majority over Democrats in Congress, with four seats yet to be filled. Following Trump’s decision to withdraw the nomination of Elise Stefanik for United Nations ambassador, concerns have intensified regarding the vulnerability of Republican districts.
The former district of Waltz is under the greatest threat, with state senator Randy Fine trailing his Democratic opponent, Josh Weil, in fundraising. Although this defeat is not considered certain, it remains a possibility. In support of Fine, Trump recently organized a tele-rally to galvanize voters.
The other House seat at contention in Florida is perceived as less risky. Florida’s chief financial officer, Jimmy Patronis, is seeking to secure the position vacated by Gaetz, with Trump also lending his support in a similar rally. Patronis’s opponent is Gay Valimont, a gun violence prevention advocate.
The situation in other states is less defined, with Republican Governor Greg Abbott showing reluctance to arrange a special election for the vacant congressional seat of the late Democrat Sylvester Turner in Texas. In Arizona, a vacancy remains after the death of Democrat Raul Grijalva.
The unexpected capture of a Republican state senate seat in Pennsylvania by Democrat James Malone has provided Democrats with renewed optimism. Nonetheless, the party continues to face challenges, including historically unfavorable ratings and internal divisions, underscored by a recent poll showing a low percentage of respondents viewing the party favorably. Despite this, the Democratic leadership recently joined Republicans to prevent a government shutdown by passing a spending bill.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/mar/30/special-elections-trump-test
