In an effort to prevent Donald Trump from joining Israel’s bombing campaign, Iran had made threats of retaliation. However, the options available to Iran for retaliation are now limited and carry significant risks.
Iran has stated that any US ships and military bases would be targeted, but the Israeli strikes over the past few days have diminished Iran’s deterrent capabilities, especially by targeting long-range ballistic missile launchers. Despite this, Iran still has a formidable arsenal of shorter-range missiles and drones.
According to Trump’s inner circle, there is support for a limited, one-off strike on Iran’s nuclear sites.
The US has taken precautions in recent weeks, scattering its naval presence in the region and bolstering air defenses to present a difficult target.
Trump has also warned of broader US involvement in Israel’s war if Iran retaliates, suggesting that a potential target for US bombers could be the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran’s other principal weapon, its network of alliances with regional militias, known as the “axis of resistance,” has also been depleted. Hezbollah’s extensive missile arsenal was severely damaged by the Israeli air force last year. Israeli planes have continued to target Hezbollah in efforts to maintain control.
A Tehran-backed Shia militia in Iraq, Kata’ib Hezbollah, has threatened to target “US interests” in the Middle East in response to Washington’s support of Israel. They have also stated that US bases in the region would be targeted. Another Iranian partner, the Houthi forces in Yemen, agreed to a ceasefire with the US in May and have warned that they would regard the truce as broken if Trump participates in attacks on Iran. They would target US ships in the Red Sea.
If any of these militias enter the war, a devastating response from the US is expected. The US has been preparing for such a contingency.
Iran also has the option of targeting shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow gateway to the Persian Gulf. Over a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes through this strait daily. Hardline Iranian politicians, who have called for the strait to be closed, would be imposing a direct cost on Trump through an oil price spike that would have an immediate inflationary effect in the US. However, closing the strait would be an act of dramatic economic self-harm as Iranian oil also uses this gateway, and shutting it down would risk bringing Gulf Arab states into the conflict.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jun/22/from-shipping-to-proxies-to-targeting-us-bases-irans-options-to-strike-back-are-limited-israel-trump-analysis
