Progressive areas of Rio were filled with cheers on Wednesday as Brazil’s supreme court ruled that former President Jair Bolsonaro should face trial for allegedly plotting a coup.

“No amnesty! No amnesty!” shouted a jubilant leftist from his balcony into the sunny autumn afternoon.

In Niterói, across the bay, composer Edu Krieger was so thrilled by the prospect of Bolsonaro serving time that he penned a song – a parody of a classic bossa nova by Tom Jobim – celebrating the downfall of the “coup-mongering fascist”.

“It was a moment of relief,” said Krieger, one among many Brazilian progressives who despise the far-right populist for his assaults on culture and human rights, about the court’s ruling.

Thousands of miles north, deep in the Amazon, Yanomami leader Júnior Hekurari also expressed satisfaction. “Never before were we so abandoned by the Brazilian state [as during Bolsonaro’s 2018-2022 administration] … His words encouraged thousands of criminal miners to invade our forests, bringing mercury, violence, and ecological destruction,” Hekurari recalled.

Bolsonaro’s critics hope this week’s ruling will conclude his disagreeable and hate-filled 36-year political career, during which the paratrooper-turned-politician underwent a remarkable transformation from an eccentric backbencher to the nation’s most powerful figure.

“He turned his back on us – and now the world can see the consequences of his actions,” said Hekurari, condemning Bolsonaro’s “neglect and inaction” for plunging the Yanomami into a grave crisis of famine and suffering.

After the unanimous ruling, Bolsonaro’s future appears bleak. When he goes on trial, perhaps later this year, few believe the politician will avoid punishment for allegedly leading a murderous conspiracy against his left-wing successor, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. These crimes could result in a sentence of over 40 years for the 72-year-old.

In a scathing attack, supreme court justice Cármen Lúcia Antunes Rocha described the kind of authoritarian takeover that Bolsonaro is accused of plotting. “Dictatorship kills. Dictatorship thrives on death – not only of society and democracy but of human beings made of flesh and bone, who are tortured, mutilated, and killed,” she said.

Bolsonaro attempted to maintain a defiant tone during a 45-minute press address, claiming he was innocent of “unfounded” allegations. “I am not obsessed with power, I have a passion for Brazil,” he shouted, before a prankster trumpeter disrupted the press conference with a sarcastic rendition of Chopin’s Funeral March.

Columnist Maria Cristina Fernandes believes Bolsonaro now appears a diminished man. “He lacks a strategy … Anyone would be lost in his position,” she said.

Fernandes predicts Bolsonaro will pursue two options to salvage his political career, seeking a presidential pardon through aiding another right-wing candidate’s election, and supporting conservative senators, in the hope they will help him avoid any such pardon.

It remains uncertain whether Bolsonaro will accomplish these objectives. When he called supporters to rally on Copacabana Beach in Rio, only about 18,000 attended, far below anticipated numbers.

“For me, the protest in Copacabana was a sign that people want to move on,” Fernandes said. “I believe Bolsonaro risks becoming a relic of the past.”

“I am not saying Brazil’s right and extreme right are doomed,” she added, but Bolsonaro seems politically exhausted. “Voters want to look to the future.”

Others are not so certain. Political columnist Bernardo Mello Franco also anticipates Bolsonaro’s conviction and incarceration – unless he flees the country or takes refuge in a foreign embassy.

Mello Franco suspects that Bolsonaro is hoping the “global extreme-right alliance,” led by Donald Trump and Elon Musk, may somehow save him, despite Trump’s more pressing concerns.

But is Bolsonaro truly finished?

“In Brazil, we can never say someone’s politically dead and buried,” Mello Franco responded. “Just look at President Lula,” whose career seemed over when he was jailed in 2018 but who won the presidency four years later. “Sometimes, people seem politically dead only to make a comeback unexpectedly.”

The musician Krieger voiced similar concerns.

“When it comes to politics, everything is so unpredictable,” Krieger said, pointing to the rise of new, social media-savvy far-right figures. “While it might be the end of the road for a specific person, it is not, sadly, the end of the road for conspiratorial, coup-mongering, fascist thinking.”

He added, “This seed was not planted by Bolsonaro in Brazil; it was sown over 500 years ago when Brazil was invaded by Europeans, and indigenous peoples began being exterminated and enslaved … These far-right ideas remain very much alive.”