The Prime Minister has pledged to ensure that 92% of patients are seen within the 18-week limit by 2029, as one of six “milestones” he aims to achieve.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) believes the NHS will struggle to meet the ever-increasing demand for care, and is “more likely than not” to fail in achieving this goal.
The health service has not met the 92% referral to treatment target since September 2015, leading to widespread skepticism among health experts.
At the end of January, a record 6.25 million people were waiting for 7.43 million elective treatments or appointments, highlighting the huge backlog of NHS care that needs to be addressed.
Long waits for surgery, cancer care, and diagnostics have become a significant concern for the public, as hospitals treated only 59% of those on the referral-to-treatment waiting list within 18 weeks in December.
The IFS suggests that simply increasing the number of patients the NHS treats would not be feasible and that the service would also need to reduce demand and prioritize those who have waited the longest.
To meet the 92% target, the NHS would need to increase planned care by 4.9% annually until 2029, which is significantly higher than the past increases.
While the Department of Health and Social Care acknowledges the challenges of restoring 92% performance, they have already implemented measures recommended by the IFS and have already delivered additional appointments and brought down waiting lists.
However, the Nuffield Trust thinktank’s deputy director of research, Sarah Scobie, believes the chances of the NHS meeting the 18-week target by the end of this parliament is “vanishingly small” due to financial constraints.
Healthwatch England suggests that the NHS should involve high street opticians to speed up treatment for people awaiting eye care.
