MPs are preparing to vote on Labour’s proposed disability benefit cuts without any clear understanding of how many individuals affected will be able to secure employment, following the revelation that Britain’s economic watchdog might not release its forecast on the employment impact of these plans until the end of October.
The Department for Work and Pensions’ own assessment last week suggested that the cuts outlined in Labour’s disability benefits green paper could push at least 300,000 individuals into poverty, including 50,000 children. This assessment was based on the strictness of new eligibility criteria for personal independence payment (PIP) and the reduction of the health element in universal credit for new claimants.
Ministers contend that individuals impacted by these cuts could avoid poverty by entering the workforce, aided by a £1 billion employment support package for the disabled, announced alongside the benefit cuts. However, the independent Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) lacked the necessary policy or analysis details from the government to assess the effectiveness of these employment measures when they evaluated the green paper, citing insufficient time for a thorough assessment.
Consequently, the OBR intends to include an analysis of the labour market impact of the green paper in its autumn forecast, which is usually published in late October. This timing raises concerns as MPs are likely to have already voted on the significant benefit cuts, with the government planning primary legislation in the current parliamentary session ending in July, making the cuts effective in 2026-27.
Critics argue that pushing through such policy changes without comprehensive analysis compromises governance and undermines the ability to evaluate the policy’s effectiveness. Labour MP Rachael Maskell, a vocal opponent of the cuts, emphasizes that no government should make decisions of this magnitude without solid evidence, especially when stakes are so high for disabled individuals.
The Department for Work and Pensions later stated that it plans to deliver a £1 billion support package aimed at helping disabled individuals find employment, while also adjusting the levels of universal credit payments to exceed inflation for the first time, Allejandra Olivo
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/30/mps-to-vote-on-disability-benefit-cuts-without-knowing-full-impact
