Peter Dutton’s Favoritism Towards One Nation May Threaten Coalition Chances in Vulnerable Districts, Experts Caution | Australian election 2025

Coalition strategists have cautioned that Peter Dutton’s decision to prioritize One Nation over Labor and other parties on certain how-to-vote cards could harm metropolitan voter support and potentially benefit independents in vulnerable seats, such as New South Wales’s Cowper electorate. Despite the Coalition’s belief that preference flows from One Nation could aid Liberal and National candidates in tight regional and suburban races, some within the Coalition have criticized this strategy. The latest Guardian Essential poll indicated One Nation had 10% of first-preference votes, higher than the 8% reported in the most recent Newspoll, suggesting it could outperform the Nationals in some areas. The preference arrangement aims to undermine mining magnate Clive Palmer’s Trumpet of Patriots party and bolster the Coalition against Labor, with One Nation printing new how-to-vote cards in a dozen seats. Although the Coalition does not anticipate One Nation winning lower house seats, they hope to benefit from above-average preference flows. In Hunter, where 72.5% of One Nation preferences went to the National party candidate in 2022, the expectation is for more than 80% to support the National party candidate this time. One Nation has also placed Nationals candidates ahead of Liberals in three-cornered contests, following a agreement with leader David Littleproud. The pollster and former Liberal state director Tony Barry links One Nation’s growth to right-wing campaign groups and their messaging. The Coalition and One Nation are also reacting to Palmer’s strategic move to place incumbents last on his party’s how-to-vote cards, which could undermine sitting MPs in certain seats. One Nation has adjusted its preferences in marginal seats in response. Despite some support within the Coalition for the preference deal, there are concerns about potential voter backlash and the legitimacy it gives to Pauline Hanson’s party.

Source: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/apr/30/coalition-preferencing-one-nation-pauline-hanson-party-federal-election