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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit China this weekend, marking his first trip in seven years. The visit comes at a time when India’s ties with the United States have deteriorated, placing Modi alongside Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Modi’s trip to Tianjin for a regional security summit follows the US’s decision to double tariffs on Indian exports to 50% due to India’s continued purchase of Russian oil.
The dispute has strained the relationship between India and the US, which was previously built on technology cooperation and a shared goal to counter China’s global influence. This has forced India to seek alternative trade partners.
“Indian trust in the US is shattered,” says South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman, expressing concern about the rapid erosion of trust between the two nations. Modi’s visit to China comes at a pivotal moment, as the two-day Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit will see the stabilization of India-China relations amidst the faltering India-US ties.
For Russia, this summit presents an opportunity to strengthen ties with India. Vladimir Putin aims to capitalize on the strained relationships between India and the US, reinforcing Russia’s close relationship with India. Meanwhile, Beijing may find enjoyment in the trade tensions between India and the US.
The US has imposed tariffs on India in response to its continued purchases of Russian crude oil and defense hardware, arguing that India is indirectly funding Moscow’s war in Ukraine. The economic implications of this are significant, as the US is India’s largest trading partner, and two-thirds of the $60.2 billion in goods exports from India to the US will now face the new tariffs.
Even before the tariffs, India had cautiously started warming up to China as a source of investment and technology, and as a means to boost trade. The relationship between the two countries thawed after a meeting between Modi and Xi at a Brics summit in Russia in October. Now, the US-India crisis acts as a catalyst for Modi to escalate efforts aimed at easing tensions between India and China.
Modi is expected to meet with Xi on the sidelines of the summit, focusing on trade and investment. India and China are now aiming to find a new equilibrium in their relationship, with both nations acknowledging the uncertainty in the global order. While historical mistrust will persist due to their disputed Himalayan border, there are still potential practical gains to be made if both countries can create a measure of stability and predictability.
India is also expected to benefit from its rift with the US through its relationship with Russia. India sees this relationship as crucial for balancing ties with the West, diversifying military hardware purchases, and ensuring energy security.
Modi’s presence alongside Xi and Putin at the summit will serve as a pointed message to Washington, as per a retired Indian diplomat. India asserts its intention to maintain ties with the US while diversifying its partnerships. The government of India has reacted by implementing export drives across 40 countries, aiming to boost its textile trade.
Before traveling to China, Modi will visit Tokyo for the annual India-Japan summit, where he will meet with Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. This trip holds added significance amidst the US tariffs, as India signals its ability to cushion the loss of US market access by deepening defense, technology, and investment ties with Japan.
Japanese companies are expected to invest up to ¥10tn ($68bn) in India in the next decade, with Suzuki Motor pledging to invest approximately $8bn over the next five to six years. The two nations are seen as “made for each other,” with the leaders expected to discuss cooperation on critical minerals and Japanese investments in high-value manufacturing in India.
While India holds substantial deposits of rare earths used in various industries, it lacks the technology to mine and process them extensively.
