Perhaps the submarines Australia has agreed to buy as part of the AUKUS deal with the US will simply never materialize under Australian control. Despite fanfare, the viability of a deal of such magnitude has been questioned since the outset. Australia has pledged to purchase conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines from the United States, along with plans to eventually build its own.
However, as concerns arise over the first pillar of the AUKUS agreement, there’s a growing unease that the promised submarines might never be delivered to Australia. Instead, there’s a worry that these submarines could end up stationed in Australia, flying US flags, carrying US weapons, and crewed and commanded by American personnel.
This concern regarding AUKUS comes in the midst of a shifting landscape in America’s relationships with its allies. With a less predictable ally in the White House under Trump, former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull expresses doubt over America’s reliability, suggesting that Australia may eventually have to invest in other means of self-defense.
On the other hand, the US has prioritized its own interests under the ‘America First’ doctrine, leading to questions over its commitment to AUKUS. Although Australia has already paid substantial sums to support the US shipbuilding industry, a Congressional Research Service report indicates that the US may not honor its commitment to deliver the submarines to Australia.
Submarines have long been a logistical and political headache for Australian governments. The current fleet is aging, and AUKUS is the latest in a series of attempts to replace it, following a series of indecisions and delays. Successive governments have pursued different designs from Japan, France, and now the US and UK.
Critics argue that AUKUS could leave Australia more dependent on an increasingly unpredictable US, diminishing our sovereignty and security. Meanwhile, proponents argue that the deal is pivotal for Australia’s geostrategic relevance in a region critical to the US’s long-term strategic interests.
Regardless, the success of AUKUS’s first pillar is shrouded in uncertainty, with the likes of military expert Clinton Fernandes and retired Rear Admiral Peter Briggs warning of a flawed plan and almost inevitable failures in the agreement. Plus, the US submarine industry is reportedly struggling to fulfill its own needs, let alone build submarines for another country’s navy.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/07/surface-tension-could-the-promised-aukus-nuclear-submarines-simply-never-be-handed-over-to-australia
