Tasmania recently held its second state election in just 16 months, marking the shortest interval between state polls in Australia since 1957. For some residents, this marked their fifth visit to the ballot box within a span of less than two years. Despite the Labor opposition’s significant responsibility in explaining the necessity of this election to voters, especially after federal Labor secured two additional seats in Tasmania mere months prior, state Labor’s vote share was only at 26% once nearly 75% of ballots were tallied.
The election was triggered when Labor introduced a no-confidence motion against Jeremy Rockliff’s Liberal minority government, citing concerns over budget management, proposed asset sales, and the delivery of major projects. On the campaign trail, however, Labor’s modest budget repair strategies were overshadowed by their support for the controversial Macquarie Point stadium project.
Additionally, Labor’s stance against asset sales was compromised by their intentions to sell the state’s portion of the proposed Marinus Link Bass Strait connector. Meanwhile, the Liberals shifted their stance from potential privatizers to promising the establishment of a government-owned insurance company, a proposal criticized by experts and insurers yet appealing to small businesses and dominating news cycles for days.
The overall vote shift was approximately 3% in favor of the Liberals, who secured 40% of the votes. There was also a rise in the number of independents elected, with some notable candidates polling well while others performed poorly. The Tasmanian Nationals, who received less support than the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers party, faced scrutiny for their campaign strategies.
Tasmania employs the Hare-Clark proportional representation system, making it difficult to achieve majority government. Despite this, voters have in the past chosen the major party most likely to win. However, with declining major party vote shares, non-majority parliaments are becoming more common.
In terms of the election’s outcome, Rockliff’s government gained a seat in Braddon and is defending potential gains in other constituencies. Labor, despite losing votes, could theoretically form a government but might face challenges in legitimacy if they were to do so after an election they are blamed for. Meanwhile, Rockliff plans to request the governor to renew his commission, adhering to precedent. Yet, questions remain about the future of his government’s stability and how potential support can be secured. Consequently, Labor would face a complex situation should they come to power, with limited MPs, debt management issues, and a crossbench with specific agenda items to address.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jul/20/minority-government-the-new-normal-in-tasmania-as-voters-turn-away-from-major-parties
