The potential of Russia- and China-fueled attacks on underwater data cables that support international internet traffic is increasing, as highlighted in a new report that notes a series of incidents in the Baltic Sea and around Taiwan. These submarine cables, which handle 99% of global intercontinental data traffic, have recently been targeted in several suspected state-sponsored events over the past 18 months. Analysis from Recorded Future, a US cybersecurity firm, has pinpointed nine incidents in the Baltic Sea and near Taiwan as an indicator of more disruptive actions to come.
Recorded Future accentuates that, although unintentional accidents are still likely to be the main cause of disruptions to underwater cables, there’s an escalating pattern of malicious acts from Russia and China. The report specifically mentions the severing of two submarine cables in the Baltic Sea last November, which investigators suspect was caused by a Chinese vessel, and the seizure of a ship carrying Russian oil in December due to a similar incident.
The report also includes cases around Taiwan where a Chinese-owned freighter and another Chinese cargo ship were involved in damaging underwater cables. Despite the challenge in attributing these events to state-sponsored sabotage, the report suggests that such actions align with the strategic objectives and capabilities of both Russia and China.
Recorded Future calls attention to the potential for devastating consequences if multiple cables were successfully attacked in deeper waters, which would be “very likely” perpetrated by state-sponsored actors due to the complexity of accessing those locations. The report outlines 44 damages to cables over the past 18 months, spanning causes such as anchor dragging, unknown factors, and natural events.
Analysts propose that targeting these cables could be an attractive tactic for states, allowing for damage to be covertly carried out with plausible deniability. Recommendations include better monitoring and security measures for underwater infrastructure, as well as thorough stress tests to mitigate the risk of prolonged connectivity issues.
The report emphasizes that while recent high-profile incidents in the Baltic Sea and Taiwan have attracted attention, the most significant impacts occurred in other regions due to the lack of alternative cables and repair expertise, such as the Red Sea and West Africa.
Additionally, while the Baltic Sea incidents did not cause substantial disruption due to spare capacity and Europe’s robust internet infrastructure, the report notes that some European island nations like Malta, Cyprus, and Ireland are more susceptible due to their dependency on submarine cables.
In response, the UK’s strategic defense review has recognized the threat to the nation’s underwater cabling system and proposed a leading role for the Royal Navy in securing underwater infrastructure critical to national life.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/jul/17/risk-undersea-cable-attacks-backed-russia-china-likely-rise-report-warns
