A tropical cyclone is currently situated off the coast of Queensland and is expected to move towards the state’s south-east in the latter part of this week, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

Authorities in Queensland are making preparations for the possible impact of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, which is predicted to be a slow-moving system with the potential to affect densely populated urban areas near Brisbane.

While tracking maps might change frequently, particularly for longer-term projections, the Bureau’s MetEye system currently indicates that Alfred will weaken and gradually move away from the coast over the coming days.

It is anticipated that the cyclone will likely change direction towards the west on Tuesday, potentially moving back towards the southern Queensland coast, including Brisbane, as a category two system.

It is expected that “Alfred should continue moving to the south on Sunday,” according to the Bureau of Meteorology.

From Tuesday, there is growing confidence that Alfred will transition in a westerly direction towards the southern Queensland coast as a new mid-level steering ridge develops to the south.

Forecasts suggest that Alfred may make landfall on Thursday along the south-east Queensland or far northern NSW coast. However, the current environmental conditions are not favorable for the system in the immediate term.

The Queensland State Disaster Management Committee is scheduled to convene a meeting at midday on Sunday and is expected to provide a public update later in the afternoon.

Authorities are likely to advise residents to closely follow the developments, primarily due to the significant damage that could occur should a cyclone impact the heavily populated and flood-prone parts of the state’s south-east.

Although it is rare for a tropical cyclone to make landfall south of the tropics, it is not unheard of.

The closest approach to Brisbane by a cyclone was in 1990 when Tropical Cyclone Nancy tracked erratically towards the Queensland capital before veering southward just off the coastline and avoiding landfall.

Tropical Cyclone Wanda, responsible for Brisbane’s historic 1974 floods, made landfall near K’gari and Hervey Bay. Additionally, a severe tropical cyclone crossed the coast near Tweed Heads in 1954.

It is more typical for a tropical cyclone to cross the coast north of the Tropic of Capricorn and then return overland to the south-east as a destructive low storm, as seen with Cyclone Debbie in 2017.

As of Sunday afternoon, Tropical Cyclone Alfred was located approximately 500km east of Rockhampton, which is situated on the Tropic of Capricorn. The bureau has issued warnings of strong gale-force winds on K’gari.

The bureau also warned about “severe coastal hazards likely for southern Queensland and north-east New South Wales.”

“A large and powerful to potentially damaging easterly swell, along with abnormally high tides, are currently developing along exposed southern Queensland beaches, and are expected to extend to northern NSW from Monday,” according to the bureau.