European countries and the UK are attempting to form a military coalition that could potentially receive support from Donald Trump. However, there are concerns that if he refuses to back the coalition, it may appear as though he is siding with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which is not something many grassroots Republicans would support. In order to create a credible coalition, sufficient NATO countries must offer practical support, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy must improve his relationship with Trump following their recent Oval Office meeting.
The coalition also needs Europe to work together with Zelenskyy to provide terms for a ceasefire that could be presented to the US. This aims to prevent the Trump administration from making a deal with Russia that would leave Europe and Ukraine excluded. For now, arguments about whether the US can be considered a reliable ally will be set aside, as Trump’s intentions can be tested by challenging him not to leave Europe without support if the coalition enters Ukraine to enforce a ceasefire.
The British government has stated that several countries have promised contributions to the coalition during a summit in London. Keir Starmer, the UK’s prime minister, has also discussed the coalition enforcing a ceasefire through ground and air forces. However, he has been hesitant to make announcements about troop contributions on behalf of countries that still need to consult domestically. So far, the US president has not stated his willingness to provide the necessary backing for the coalition, but the UK is currently building a case that history shows Vladimir Putin cannot be trusted to uphold any ceasefire.
The disagreement over the US’s role in the conflict prompted a heated argument between Zelenskyy and Trump, as well as the US vice-president, JD Vance. Starmer and Europe have sided with Zelenskyy, insisting that Russia cannot dictate the terms of any security deal and that any deal would require defense. The question now is whether Trump will reject any US involvement if presented with a credible European plan. Starmer has emphasized that Europe must do its part to support peace in the continent, but the effort also needs strong US backing, which is currently in doubt.
There is a fear that Trump may have abandoned Europe and Ukraine. His national security adviser, Mike Waltz, stated that a leader who can effectively deal with Russia and end the war is needed. However, Starmer has also challenged Europe to move beyond its promises to increase defense spending and to take action. An EU summit later in the week will test the bloc’s willingness to invest in defense outside of the fiscal debt limits, releasing additional funds. Ursula von der Leyen, the Commission president, has promised a comprehensive plan, and the signs are that the new German governing coalition will act urgently.
The Polish president, Donald Tusk, believes that the upcoming EU summit should send a message to Putin that the West will not capitulate before his blackmail and aggression. Starmer is convinced that he has persuaded Zelenskyy that reactivating US access to Ukrainian rare minerals is crucial. This agreement had previously fallen apart during the Oval Office meeting, but the UK ambassador to Washington, Peter Mandelson, believes it is the only way to convince the US that it has a stake in Ukraine that warrants the necessary security guarantees.
Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/mar/02/europe-has-a-lot-to-do-before-it-can-exert-real-influence-on-a-ukraine-peace-deal
